ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) surged 5.37% as TSMC raised 2026 capex to 52-56 billion dollars

ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) surged 5.37% in pre-market trading on January 16, 2026, driven by renewed optimism in the semiconductor equipment sector.

The rally followed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) raising its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, significantly above the $46 billion market expectation. As TSMC’s largest supplier of chipmaking tools, ASML stands to benefit from increased demand for its advanced lithography systems as AI-driven chip production accelerates. TSMC’s investment in next-generation manufacturing infrastructure, including expanded AI chip capacity, has reinforced expectations of stronger equipment orders for ASML in 2027 and beyond.

Analysts noted that TSMC’s aggressive capex plans, coupled with rising investments from other chipmakers in AI-related workloads, could sustain elevated demand for ASML’s EUV machines. However, some caution that construction timelines for new facilities may lag near-term demand. ASML’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report on January 28 will be closely watched for signs of order growth and production readiness for its next-gen High-NA EUV systems.

Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating for ASML, citing TSMC’s 30% year-over-year projected growth in advanced logic equipment spending. The firm highlighted that TSMC’s shift toward 70-80% allocation for advanced chips underscores long-term tailwinds for ASML’s core business, despite near-term supply chain bottlenecks in manufacturing high-complexity tools.