ASML Forecasts Revenue Surge to Double by 2030 Amid AI Boom and China Challenges
1min read In recent announcements, ASML Holdings—the prominent Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer—has reiterated its robust financial outlook for 2030, predicting that revenues may soar to twice the expectations of the current fiscal year. This outlook emerges amid heightened anticipation for AI-driven growth, although potential challenges loom, particularly from China. Amidst fluctuating global market conditions, ASML held firm on its mid-term objectives during an investor day presentation in Eindhoven, with revenue projections ranging from €44 billion to €60 billion and a maintained gross margin target.
ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet, underscored the pivotal role of AI, described as "ubiquitous" and noted as the most significant change over the past two years. The increased focus on AI is partly attributed to the rise of conversational AI, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT, sharpening attention on AI’s influence. ASML continues to forecast high demand for its cutting-edge EUV lithography systems, essential for producing next-generation semiconductors.
Furthermore, the projected semiconductor market is expected to exceed $1 trillion annually, albeit with a shift in its dynamics. While traditional markets like smartphones and PCs may underperform relative to earlier predictions, sectors linked to AI, such as servers and data centers, are forecasted to grow over 40% more than anticipated two years ago. This optimism extends to maintaining high sales in China, which accounted for 47% of ASML's revenues in Q3 2024, a significant rise from 15% in the same quarter of 2022, reflecting extraordinary demand from emerging Chinese semiconductor manufacturers.
However, ASML is cautious about potential regulatory impacts. The Dutch government, under U.S. direction, has restricted exports of EUV equipment to China, which may intensify under a U.S. administration with a stern stance towards China. These export controls could constrain ASML's operations, reflected in the expectation that Chinese market contribution will reduce to around 20% by the 2025 fiscal year.
Despite these uncertainties, Fouquet did not heavily focus on ASML’s China-related risks during the investor briefing, subtly acknowledging the expected normalization of Chinese demand. There remains an ambitious path ahead for ASML, aiming to more than double its revenue by 2030. Industry experts, like those from Mizuho Securities, consider the company's outlook positive, anticipating broader market improvements in the coming years. Still, as competitors develop new technologies, ASML faces intensifying competition in the critical AI semiconductor equipment field.