ASML Aims for Trillion-Dollar Semiconductor Surge with EUV Tech and AI Growth by 2030
2min read On November 14, ASML announced significant updates to its long-term strategy during its 2024 Investor Day, projecting annual revenues of approximately 44 billion to 60 billion euros by 2030, with gross margins ranging from 56% to 60%. Christophe Fouquet, ASML's President and CEO, expressed optimistic views about the future, stating that the company aims to advance its EUV technology significantly in the next decade. This effort will complement its extensive panoramic lithography product portfolio, allowing ASML to capitalize on artificial intelligence opportunities for significant revenue and profit growth.
The semiconductor industry is expected to remain buoyant given its pivotal role in driving various macroeconomic trends. ASML foresees substantial opportunities arising from the growth potential of key terminal markets and the anticipated surge in artificial intelligence, which is poised to become a major driver of productivity and innovation. These dynamics are anticipated to propel worldwide semiconductor sales to exceed 1 trillion dollars by 2030, suggesting an annual growth rate of approximately 9% for the semiconductor market between 2025 and 2030.
ASML also envisions a promising future for EUV technology, with sales expected to increase by 2030. The scalability of EUV technology, along with its cost-effectiveness, is likely to encourage clients to transition from multiple-exposure processes to single-exposure techniques using low numerical aperture (0.33NA) and high numerical aperture (0.55NA) EUV systems. This transition will support advancements in logic and dynamic random-access memory (DRAM).
The company anticipates a double-digit compound annual growth rate in demand for EUV lithography equipment for advanced logic and DRAM between 2025 and 2030. ASML Executive Vice President and CFO Roger Dassen expressed confidence in the strong demand for ASML's products and services, driven by growing semiconductor terminal markets and the development of future process nodes.
ASML confirmed its capital allocation strategy, expecting to continue returning significant cash to shareholders through increased dividends and share buybacks. The company anticipates annual revenues ranging from 44 billion to 60 billion euros by 2030, with gross margins between 56% and 60%.
In its Q3 2024 financial report released on October 16, ASML reported net sales of 7.5 billion euros with a gross margin of 50.8%, resulting in a net profit of 2.1 billion euros. Orders for EUV lithography machines amounted to 1.4 billion euros out of a total of 2.6 billion euros in new bookings. ASML forecasts that Q4 2024 net sales will range from 8.8 billion to 9.2 billion euros, with a gross margin between 49% and 50%. It expects full-year 2024 net sales to be approximately 28 billion euros, aligned with the company's initial forecasts.
Looking ahead to 2025, ASML projects net sales of 30 billion to 35 billion euros, within the lower band of its earlier prediction from the 2022 Investor Day, which estimated 2025 revenues of between 30 billion and 40 billion euros. The anticipated gross margin for 2025 is expected to be between 51% and 53%, slightly below the previous forecast due to a delayed timeline in demand for EUV lithography systems.
