ASML's 2026 Outlook Update "Very Confusing" and "Overall Disappointing": Cantor Fitzgerald

Cantor Fitzgerald has downgraded ASML's report, calling it "very confusing and overall disappointing". The firm notes that ASML updated its 2026 outlook from "growth year over year" to "while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage". Shares have fallen as a result.

Cantor Fitzgerald, a prominent Wall Street investment bank, has expressed concern over ASML Holding NV's (ASML, Financial) revised outlook for 2026, describing the update as "very confusing and overall disappointing". The firm, which maintains an Overweight rating on ASML, has cited the uncertainty in the company's growth projections as a key reason for the downgrade [2].

ASML initially anticipated consistent annual growth by 2026 but has since revised its outlook to "while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage". This change in outlook has led to a decline in the company's share value, with Cantor Fitzgerald noting that the revised projections have contributed to investor uncertainty [2].

The revised outlook comes amidst a challenging geopolitical environment, with ongoing discussions about tariffs potentially impacting the semiconductor supply chain. ASML has also faced challenges with customer payment dynamics and investments in fixed assets, leading to a negative free cash flow of EUR475 million in Q1 2025 [2].

Despite these challenges, ASML has reported strong demand in the AI sector and made significant progress in EUV technology, with milestones achieved in both low NA and high NA platforms. However, the company anticipates a wider range of gross margins for Q2 2025 due to uncertainties around tariffs and their absorption in the value chain [2].

Cantor Fitzgerald's downgrade of ASML's outlook is a reminder of the volatile nature of the semiconductor industry, particularly in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. Investors should closely monitor ASML's progress in the coming quarters to assess the potential impact of these challenges on the company's financial performance.

References:
[1] https://www.tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:9edbd81ba094b:0-cantor-fitzgerald-to-finalize-4b-bitcoin-acquisition-deal-with-blockstream-founder-report/
[2] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2981592/asmls-revised-2026-outlook-leads-to-investor-uncertainty-asml-stock-news