Asia Stock Trader's Guide to Looming Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

The US Supreme Court is expected to rule on President Donald Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers as early as January 9, creating a pivotal moment for global markets. A ruling that strikes down the tariffs could lead to refunds of up to $150 billion in duties collected since 2025, potentially boosting sectors such as retail and consumer goods. Asian stock markets have shown resilience in 2026, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising around 3% year to date.

Asian currencies, however, have lagged, with the Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index down 0.1% in 2026. The outcome of the ruling could ease pressure on global supply chains and improve earnings visibility for exporters, especially those in China and India, according to JPMorgan Private Bank equity strategist Cameron Chui.

Automakers and parts suppliers are among the sectors to watch. Japanese and Korean carmakers have faced uncertainty due to Trump’s tariffs, which were recently reduced for Japanese imports. Any further easing could stabilize pricing discussions and boost order visibility for parts makers.

What Could the Supreme Court Ruling Mean for Markets?

If the Supreme Court invalidates Trump’s tariffs, the US government could face substantial refunds, potentially affecting Treasury revenues. Analysts note this could lead to higher yields and market volatility. Eddie Ghabour of KEY Advisors Wealth Management described the ruling as potentially the most economically impactful event in years.

A favorable ruling for importers would result in a cash inflow of $150 billion to $200 billion, benefiting companies that absorbed high import costs. John Velis of BNY Markets suggested stocks would benefit broadly, with retail and consumer goods particularly poised to gain.

How Might the Refund Process Play Out?

Companies are already preparing for the possibility of a refund battle. Costco and other importers have filed lawsuits to preserve their rights to potential refunds. Experts like Jim Estill of Danby Appliances warn that even if the court rules against the tariffs, the Trump administration may delay or complicate the repayment process.

Legal experts anticipate that any refund process would depend on whether the court provides clear instructions or refers the matter to a lower court, such as the Court of International Trade. Importers must act quickly, as deadlines to file claims for refunds have already passed for some goods imported in early 2025.

What Sectors Should Investors Watch?

Consumer goods, electronics, and retail are expected to benefit from a favorable ruling. South Korea, a major export hub, is also adjusting its policies to boost market access. The government announced plans to implement 24-hour foreign exchange trading by July 2026, aiming to improve the KOSPI’s eligibility for MSCI’s developed market index.

The government also expects 2% economic growth in 2026, driven by stronger domestic consumption and semiconductor exports. However, long-term growth remains constrained by demographic challenges and the need for structural reforms.

South Korea’s currency, the won, has faced pressure since 2020 but rebounded late in 2025 after market-stabilizing measures. The government’s efforts to open financial markets align with broader efforts to attract foreign investment and improve transparency.

As the Supreme Court prepares to issue its decision, investors remain cautious. The ruling’s outcome could set the tone for global trade and financial markets in the months ahead.