Asia-Pacific Drives 7.7% Global Container Trade Growth Amid Challenges

Despite the challenging global economic outlook, the Asia-Pacific region has shown resilience in container shipping, with the peak season arriving earlier than expected. The region's export growth, particularly from China, has been a significant driver of this trend. The global container trade grew by 7.7% in 2024, with Asia-Pacific exports contributing substantially to this increase. Looking ahead, trade is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2025, with Asia-Pacific export routes growing faster than the global average.

While the United States has delayed port fees for Chinese vessels that could disrupt global shipping, the operational stability of the Red Sea-Suez Canal route remains uncertain due to ongoing security concerns. As the peak season approaches, this could lead to capacity constraints. New alliances are forming, but there has been an increase in canceled sailings in recent weeks due to port congestion and carriers tightening capacity to boost freight rates. Currently, 9.2% of the global fleet, or 2.9 million TEUs, is idle.

Tensions in the Middle East, including renewed conflict between Israel and Hamas and U.S. airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, have led major container shipping companies to avoid the region due to instability. Despite no reported attacks on commercial vessels so far this year, the situation remains volatile, making it difficult to resume regular services.

Global ship orders have reached a record high, exceeding 9 million TEUs. However, only two-thirds of this new capacity is expected to be delivered by 2028, indicating a gradual impact on the overall fleet size. Container freight rates have been declining since January, currently 75% lower than the 2021 peak but still above pre-pandemic levels. The increase in transport volume during the early peak season and continued avoidance of the Suez Canal route are expected to drive rate increases in May and June.

The market is expected to reach a more balanced state, but volatility remains a persistent threat. Factors that could disrupt this balance include canceled sailings due to port congestion, extended transit times via the Cape of Good Hope route, and carriers' focus on revenue management as they adapt to new alliance structures. Port congestion remains a significant challenge, particularly in Europe, where over 935,000 TEUs of cargo were waiting at anchorages in North Europe and the Mediterranean as of early April, accounting for 32% of the global total. Major ports like Hamburg, Rotterdam, and Antwerp are facing severe congestion and berthing delays.

On a positive note, global schedule reliability improved in February, reaching 54.9%, the highest level since May 2024. The newly formed Maersk-Hapag-Lloyd alliance has shown promising results, with an impressive 94% on-time performance at its ports of origin in its first month of operation, outperforming other alliances. The shipping industry is navigating an increasingly complex regulatory environment, with developments such as the implementation of the EU's ICS2 third version for electronic security screening in road, rail, and sea transport starting April 1, 2025, and ongoing changes in U.S. tariff policies. Proposed tariffs on oil imports from Venezuela could impact major economies like India. The delayed implementation of port fees for Chinese-related vessels in the U.S. has been met with strong opposition from shipping companies and shippers, potentially avoiding significant disruptions to global trade and shipping costs.