The Far-Right's Ascent: Germany's AfD and the Shifting Political Landscape

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), once a fringe Eurosceptic party, has undergone a dramatic transformation into a far-right force reshaping German politics. From its founding in 2013 to its historic gains in the 2024 state elections and the February 2025 federal vote, the AfD’s evolution reflects a deepening societal divide in Germany. Its rise—from 4.7% of the vote in 2013 to nearly 21% in 2021 and a projected 26% in early 2025—signals a seismic shift in political priorities, driven by economic anxiety, migration tensions, and the normalization of extremist rhetoric.

Policy Shifts: From Euroscepticism to Far-Right Radicalization

The AfD’s early focus on opposing the EU’s handling of the 2015 refugee crisis and austerity measures has given way to a more extreme agenda. By 2025, the party had solidified its identity as a far-right, nationalist, and anti-immigration force, framing migration as a security threat and advocating for an “ethnic-ancestry-based” conception of German identity. Key shifts include:
- Anti-Immigration Hardline: The AfD’s 2025 platform called for suspending asylum rights for non-refugees and deporting “non-integrated” foreigners, capitalizing on fears of terrorism and cultural erosion.
- Climate Denial: Rejecting climate science, the party opposed EU emissions targets, arguing they harmed German industry.
- Xenophobic Rhetoric: By 2025, its leaders openly employed antisemitic tropes and revived Nazi-era slogans, drawing formal scrutiny from Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV).

Election Results: A New Political Reality

The AfD’s electoral trajectory underscores its growing clout:
- State Elections (2024): In Thuringia, the AfD became the first far-right party to lead a German state government, securing 38% of the vote. In Saxony and Brandenburg, it finished second, eroding the CDU’s traditional dominance.
- Federal Election (2025): The AfD nearly doubled its 2021 vote share, capturing 20.8% of the federal vote and 152 seats in the Bundestag—its highest-ever tally. In eastern Germany, it became the largest party in all five states, often exceeding 30% support.

Key Drivers of Support: Economic and Social Fractures

The AfD’s rise is rooted in systemic societal tensions:
1. Economic Anxiety: A two-year recession (2023–2025) and rising living costs fueled support among voters disillusioned with mainstream parties’ economic policies. The AfD’s anti-elite rhetoric resonated with working-class voters, especially in the economically struggling east.
2. Migration Fears: High-profile attacks by migrants and refugees, coupled with government hesitancy on border control, amplified the AfD’s message.
3. Mainstream Collapse: The SPD-Green-FDP “Ampel” coalition’s 2024 collapse over infighting and policy failures further eroded trust in traditional parties.

Demographic data reveals a stark divide:
- The AfD’s strongest support came from men (7% higher than women) and voters without college degrees (twice as likely to back the AfD compared to university graduates).
- In eastern Germany, where unemployment and post-reunification neglect are acute, the AfD averaged 35% support—doubling its share in Thuringia compared to the CDU.

The BfV’s Far-Right Designation: A Tipping Point?

On May 2, 2025, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency classified the AfD as a “confirmed right-wing extremist” organization, citing its antisemitism, xenophobia, and advocacy for exclusionary policies. The move triggered debates over whether to ban the party under Article 21 of the Basic Law, which allows dissolution of groups threatening democracy.

Proponents argue the AfD’s rhetoric—such as its “remigration” proposals and Holocaust revisionism—crosses constitutional red lines. Skeptics counter that banning the AfD could backfire, boosting its martyrdom narrative. With the AfD polling at 26% in early 2025, its electoral strength complicates any ban, as courts must weigh its democratic threat against its political relevance.

Implications for Germany’s Future

The AfD’s rise poses three existential challenges:
1. Political Polarization: As the largest opposition bloc, the AfD will obstruct governance, particularly on climate policy and EU integration. Its influence could delay renewable energy investments, risking Germany’s energy transition goals.
2. Economic Stagnation: In AfD-dominated regions, 50% of businesses report difficulty attracting foreign talent, undermining efforts to address labor shortages.
3. Democratic Erosion: The AfD’s normalization of extremist rhetoric risks mainstreaming intolerance, with hate crimes rising by 20% between 2023 and 2025.

Conclusion: A Crossroads for Democracy

The AfD’s ascent reflects a fractured Germany, where economic despair and identity politics have empowered extremism. With its 2025 vote share of 26% and parliamentary clout, the party has become a central actor in German politics—a stark contrast to its fringe origins.

The BfV’s extremist designation, while historic, may not reverse the AfD’s trajectory. Mainstream parties must address the root causes of its support—economic inequality, regional neglect, and migration fears—to prevent further radicalization. Failure could see the AfD capitalize on voter frustration, potentially securing 30%+ support by 2029.

Germany’s political landscape is at a crossroads. The AfD’s rise is not just a partisan shift but a symptom of a society grappling with its post-war identity. For investors, the stakes are high: a politically destabilized Germany could deter foreign investment, disrupt EU cohesion, and prolong economic stagnation. The path forward demands more than political posturing—it requires a reckoning with the forces that fuel far-right appeal.

The AfD’s story is a cautionary tale of democracy’s fragility—and a call to confront the divisions that empower its rise.