Arweave/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• Price action shows moderate bearish bias with a 12.3% decline over 24 hours.
• Volume trends remain inconsistent, with notable spikes in the early hours.
• RSI indicates oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term rebound.

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at $0.0000513 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0000489 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. The pair reached a high of $0.0000543 and a low of $0.0000485 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume was 14,648.61 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $752.29 (based on Bitcoin’s USD price).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a descending channel forming, with a key support level identified at $0.0000485 and resistance at $0.0000525. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:30 ET, signaling continued downward momentum. Several doji patterns appear near the $0.0000500 level, indicating indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period line is flattening, suggesting a potential pause in the downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA is below the 100-period and 200-period lines, indicating a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart has crossed below the signal line, with bearish divergence observed in the final hours of trading. The RSI is currently at 30.5, indicating oversold territory, which may provide a short-term floor for the pair. However, without a confirming bullish reversal candle, a rebound may be limited.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remains within the Bollinger Bands, with a contraction observed between 04:00 and 07:00 ET. The current price is near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce or a breakdown toward $0.0000470 if the trend continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was inconsistent, with a major spike observed during the afternoon hours (15:00–17:00 ET), correlating with a sharp drop in price. However, turnover failed to confirm the bearish momentum during that period. Divergence between volume and price could signal a potential reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 15-minute swing from $0.0000543 to $0.0000485, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.0000515, and the 61.8% level is at $0.0000503. Price appears to find resistance at these levels, reinforcing the potential for a continuation of the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtest strategy involves using the 3-day-hold MACD golden-cross to evaluate its effectiveness on ARBTC from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11. This strategy would assess if a buy signal is triggered when the MACD line crosses above the signal line with confirmation of rising volume. The MACD readings observed today remain bearish, but a golden-cross scenario could emerge if the 15-minute MACD line rises above the signal line and volume increases in the next 24 hours.