Arweave/Bitcoin Market Overview (2025-11-10)

Summary
• Price dipped 3.5% over 24 hours, closing near key support at $0.0000525.
• Volume spiked during bearish breakouts, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term bounce.

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at $0.0000556 and closed at $0.0000520, with a high of $0.0000578 and a low of $0.0000511 over the past 24 hours. Total volume reached 45,071.62 BTC, while turnover amounted to approximately $2.34M (assuming $56,000 for BTC). The pair appears to be consolidating near critical support levels, with bearish momentum evident from the declining volume and price.

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish bias, with price repeatedly failing to close above the 50-period SMA. A long lower shadow at 21:30 ET suggests a temporary rejection of further decline, while a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0000534 appears to act as a short-term floor. The RSI is in oversold territory below 30, which may imply a potential bounce, though it remains below the 20-line, suggesting caution is warranted.

Volatility has expanded over the last 24 hours, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching a high of $0.0000580 and the lower band hitting $0.0000515. Price has spent the majority of the session near the lower band, indicating a bearish consolidation. A breakdown below $0.0000511 could trigger a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.0000500, where a key support cluster from prior swings may offer a temporary floor. On the flip side, a retest of $0.0000535 could see renewed short-covering and a possible pullback.

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session, confirming a bearish crossover. Negative divergence between price and volume during the breakdown at $0.0000525 suggests strong bearish conviction. However, the RSI’s entry into oversold territory may prompt countertrend buyers to step in. Investors should watch for a rejection near $0.0000525 and potential bear trap if the price fails to maintain above this level.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed strategy involves using MACD-based Golden Cross and Death Cross signals on a 5-day time frame, combined with a fixed 5-day exit rule. A Golden Cross (MACD line crossing above the signal line) would generate a long entry, while a Death Cross (MACD line crossing below the signal line) would signal an exit. To enhance robustness, a stop-loss at 2% and a take-profit at 5% could be added. Using the close price as the default, this strategy could be tested from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10 to evaluate its effectiveness on ARBTC and similar pairs.