Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) Market Overview: Volatility and Weakness on 15-Minute Charts

• Price fell from 3.75e-05 to 3.59e-05, driven by bearish momentum and declining volume in the final hours.
• RSI moved toward oversold territory, while MACD showed bearish divergence with a flattening histogram.
• Volatility spiked with a 3.71e-05 to 3.59e-05 range as Bollinger Bands widened in the last 6 hours.
• A key support level at 3.64e-05 appears to have failed, opening the door for further correction.
• Notional turnover of $68.53 BTC highlights liquidity shifts but lacks confirmation of a strong reversal.

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at 3.69e-05 on October 21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.59e-05 on October 22 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.77e-05 and a low of 3.59e-05. Total volume reached 6,075.81 units, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $68.53 BTC over the 24-hour period. The price experienced a clear bearish bias, especially in the final hours of the window.

On the 15-minute chart, ARBTC formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:45 ET and a morning star pattern failed to hold at 21:30 ET. Resistance levels at 3.75e-05 and 3.72e-05 appear to have failed, with price finding new resistance near 3.64e-05 before breaking down. Support at 3.62e-05 is currently under pressure, and the 20-period EMA has crossed below the 50-period line, signaling bearish momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved toward oversold territory, currently near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD histogram has been flattening for much of the window, with the line dipping below the signal line at 21:30 ET, forming a bearish divergence. Bollinger Bands expanded after a quiet morning, with the price closing near the lower band at 3.59e-05, confirming heightened volatility.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 3.59e-05 to 3.77e-05 swing show key levels at 3.65e-05 (23.6%) and 3.69e-05 (38.2%). These levels may offer short-term resistance should buyers attempt to defend them. On the 50/100/200 daily chart, ARBTC is below all three averages, indicating a broader bearish trend. The 200-day SMA currently sits at 3.72e-05, with the price likely to test this level as support in the near term.

The bearish bias may continue in the near term, with price potentially testing 3.55e-05 as the next support target. However, a rally from this level could see a retest of 3.64e-05 and possibly 3.68e-05. Traders should remain cautious, as diverging momentum indicators and weak volume suggest that any bounce may lack follow-through.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET and the subsequent price action that confirmed its strength, a backtest using this setup could yield valuable insights. The signal was confirmed at the close of that candle, aligning with the default strategy of entering a long position at the close and exiting at the next day’s close. While the signal was bearish in nature, it could be reversed to a short strategy for a more accurate test. Applying this rule to ARBTC over the period from 2022-01-01 through 2025-10-22 would require pulling historical data for candlestick patterns, particularly bearish engulfing, and executing trades based on the above timing convention. This setup could be further refined by incorporating stop-loss and take-profit levels aligned with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.