Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) Market Overview

Summary
• ARBTC declined from 6.45e-05 to 5.39e-05 in 24 hours, forming a bearish trend with high volume in the early session.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions and weak momentum, with price near the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
• Volatility expanded as price moved below a key support level, potentially opening the door to further downward movement.

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at 6.45e-05 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 6.56e-05, and closed at 5.39e-05 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09. Total volume reached 13,392.0, while turnover was approximately $0.697 (notional value). The pair has experienced a sharp and sustained bearish move, especially after 20:00 ET, driven by increased sell pressure.

The 15-minute chart shows a breakdown below key support at 6.33e-05, followed by a continuation move toward 5.34e-05. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible early in the session, and the price failed to recover above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from a prior 6.56e-05 high to 5.21e-05 low. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, reinforcing downward momentum.

MACD is in negative territory with a bearish crossover, while RSI has dropped into oversold territory (RSI < 30). This suggests the price may be due for a short-term bounce but remains in a longer-term bearish trend. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly as volatility increased, with price now trading near the lower band, indicating exhaustion in the downward move. Volume and turnover spiked during the 12:00–15:00 ET session, confirming the bearish breakout.

A price chart would highlight the bearish engulfing pattern, the 20 and 50 EMA bearish alignment, and the RSI dipping below the 30 oversold threshold.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the current oversold RSI condition and the bearish momentum in the 15-minute chart, a potential backtesting strategy could involve detecting “oversold” RSI events (RSI < 30) and generating a 5-day holding signal. This would allow for a short-term bounce strategy, capitalizing on potential mean reversion after a sharp decline. However, the current price structure shows a strong continuation of bearish momentum, so any such signal would need to be carefully risk-managed with a stop-loss or trailing stop. To proceed with the backtest, a valid ticker symbol for ARBTC must be resolved to extract the necessary RSI data series from 2022-01-01 to the present. Once confirmed, the strategy can be tested for its performance and robustness.