Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis as of October 4, 2025

• Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) closed at 4.78e-05, down from an open of 4.96e-05 and a high of 5.24e-05.
• Price formed bearish engulfing patterns mid-day, followed by consolidation below the 5.03e-05 level.
• Volatility expanded as price moved 23% from high to low, with a sharp drop in turnover in the final 6 hours.
• RSI entered oversold territory near the close, while MACD showed bearish divergence with price.
• Key support levels identified at 4.81e-05 and 4.75e-05, with resistance near 5.03e-05 and 5.05e-05.

Market Summary

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at 4.96e-05 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4.78e-05 on October 4 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 5.24e-05 and a low of 4.74e-05. Total volume amounted to 103,696.06, while notional turnover reached 4.66 USD. Price action showed bearish bias, with a sharp drop following a failed attempt to retest 5.03e-05.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 18:15 ET, signaling a potential reversal from a prior uptrend. Later, a doji appeared at 22:30 ET, indicating indecision. Key support levels were identified at 4.81e-05 (78.9% of the 15-minute range) and 4.75e-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a prior 5.05e-05 to 4.75e-05 swing). Resistance appears to be forming at 5.03e-05 and 5.05e-05, both of which failed to hold in the past 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price in the late hours, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period MA currently sits near 4.91e-05, acting as a dynamic resistance level. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are aligned bearishly, with price well below all key levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at around 20:00 ET, forming a bearish crossover, and remained negative for the remainder of the 24-hour window. The RSI approached oversold territory, hitting a low of 28 near the final hour, suggesting limited room for further downside in the near term. However, bearish divergence between the MACD and price action indicates continued selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour window, with the upper band reaching 5.18e-05 and the lower band falling to 4.71e-05. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce. However, the wide band width and the bearish momentum may delay a meaningful rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early afternoon (16:00–18:30 ET) as price moved toward 4.93e-05 but sharply declined after 22:00 ET, suggesting reduced participation. Notional turnover mirrored the volume trend, peaking at around 16:30 ET. However, the lack of significant buying interest in the last 6 hours implies weak conviction in any near-term recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price recently moved from a high of 5.24e-05 to a low of 4.74e-05, forming a 500-basis-point swing. The 61.8% level at 4.75e-05 provided temporary support. The next key support lies at 4.71e-05 (100% of the swing), while 4.83e-05 (38.2%) could offer short-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI entering oversold territory, a mean-reversion strategy could be backtested: a long entry near the 4.75e-05 level with a stop below 4.71e-05 and a target at 4.83e-05. Alternatively, a short trade could be initiated above 4.83e-05 with a stop at 4.85e-05 and a target at 4.75e-05. Both setups would align with the recent consolidation around 4.78e-05 and the bearish divergence observed in the MACD.