Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) Market Overview – 2025-09-25

• Price declined by 4.35% in 24 hours, closing near a swing low.
• Volume spiked during late-night liquidation, but turnover remained subdued.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed midday, followed by a breakout to the downside.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 5.25e-05, reinforcing downside bias.

The Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) pair opened at 5.28e-05 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 5.07e-05 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The price reached a high of 5.28e-05 and a low of 4.98e-05 during the 24-hour window. Total volume traded was 3,888.59, with a notional turnover of approximately 200.87. The price action reflects a bearish bias with multiple bearish signals forming.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a key resistance zone forming around 5.25e-05–5.26e-05, where the price repeatedly failed to retest. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the evening, confirming the breakdown. Additionally, a long lower shadow at 5.13e-05 suggested short-covering attempts, but the overall trend remained bearish. A potential support level was identified near 5.09e-05, where a large candle closed with a small body, indicating a possible consolidation point ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly in the latter half of the period. By the close, both were below the price, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA alignment was neutral to bearish, with the price hovering slightly above the 50-day line, suggesting a possible short-term bounce before resuming the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence, with negative bars expanding during the late-night selloff. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, which could signal a short-term bounce, but a bearish crossover in the MACD line suggests further declines are likely. The momentum remains bearish, and a sustained close above 5.15e-05 could provide temporary relief but not reverse the trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the early afternoon, signaling low volatility and a potential breakout. The price broke to the downside in the evening, closing near the lower band. Volatility increased significantly after the breakout, indicating a continuation of the bearish move. A retest of the upper band near 5.15e-05 is unlikely without a strong reversal signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night selloff, particularly between 23:45 and 00:30, with a large block trade at 5.13e-05 pushing the price lower. However, notional turnover did not follow suit, indicating potential wash trading or a lack of conviction behind the move. A divergence between volume and price could signal a temporary pullback, but the overall trend remains bearish.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 5.28e-05 to 5.13e-05, the price closed near the 61.8% retracement level at 5.15e-05, confirming a strong bearish trend. On the daily chart, the current level sits near the 38.2% retracement of the recent major move, suggesting a potential pause before the next leg lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on bearish engulfing patterns and oversold RSI conditions could prove effective in this environment. Traders may look to enter short positions on confirmation of a breakdown below 5.09e-05, with a target near 4.95e-05 and a stop near 5.15e-05. The strategy relies on the confluence of price patterns and momentum indicators, with volume acting as a confirmation tool for the strength of the move. This approach aligns well with the observed bearish structure and could be used to capture the continuation of the current downtrend.