Arweave/Bitcoin 24-Hour Market Overview

• ARBTC traded in a tight range on the 15-minute chart, with a final close near the open.
• Volatility was subdued, with price action confined between 5.27e-05 and 5.34e-05 for most of the day.
• A small bearish divergence in RSI may suggest weakening bullish momentum.
• Late afternoon volume spike failed to break above key resistance near 5.34e-05.
• Bollinger Bands constricted, hinting at a potential breakout or consolidation phase.

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at 5.31e-05 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 5.37e-05 and a low of 5.17e-05. Price closed at 5.27e-05 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 2,529.67, with a notional turnover of approximately 132.49 ARBTC-equivalent value (volume weighted by price).

Structure & Formations

Price action showed multiple attempts to break above the 5.34e-05 resistance level throughout the day, most notably in the morning hours. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 05:30 ET, briefly pushing the pair above 5.34e-05 before retracting. A doji appeared at the 09:00 ET candle, suggesting indecision. Key support was observed near 5.27e-05, where price consolidated in the final hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA crossed around 5.30e-05 and 5.28e-05, respectively, indicating a mixed short-term bias. The 50-period MA on the daily chart hovered around 5.30e-05, while the 100 and 200-period MAs sat at 5.29e-05 and 5.28e-05, respectively. Price closed below all three, suggesting a bearish bias for longer-term holders.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained below its signal line throughout the 24 hours, with a bearish crossover occurring early on. RSI peaked near 60 during the morning consolidation phase and dropped to 45 by the end of the period, indicating moderate bearish momentum. There was a bearish divergence in RSI between the 05:00 and 06:30 ET candles, suggesting potential weakening of the upward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly in the 04:00–06:00 ET timeframe, pointing to a possible breakout or consolidation phase. Price closed near the middle band, having failed to make a strong move in either direction. The upper band sat at 5.35e-05, while the lower band hovered near 5.27e-05, forming a tight trading range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning and late afternoon, particularly around 03:00 and 07:30 ET, when the pair approached key resistance levels. However, these spikes failed to confirm a breakout, leading to a price reversal. Turnover correlated with volume, with the largest notional value traded during the 03:00 ET candle. A divergence was observed between price and volume in the 19:30 ET candle, where large volume failed to push price above 5.31e-05.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute move from 5.17e-05 to 5.37e-05, the 38.2% level aligned with 5.31e-05, where price found resistance. The 61.8% level was near 5.27e-05, which became a key support level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of a larger move (not fully visible in the 24-hour dataset) appeared to align with 5.30e-05, where price hesitated multiple times.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be built on the observed behavior of the 5.34e-05 and 5.27e-05 levels, with a focus on RSI and MACD divergences. A short signal could be triggered when RSI shows bearish divergence and price approaches a key resistance level without breaking through. A stop-loss could be placed above the 5.35e-05 upper Bollinger Band, with a target near the 5.25e-05 Fibonacci level. This strategy would aim to capture the bearish momentum observed in the 24-hour period.