Arweave (ARUSDT) Market Overview: Sharp 24-Hour Drop Amid Elevated Volatility

• Arweave (ARUSDT) experienced a sharp 24-hour decline from $8.35 to $7.44, with heavy selling pressure evident in the final 6 hours.
• Key support tested at $7.44–$7.51, with a potential 61.8% Fibonacci level near $7.65; no strong reversal patterns emerged.
• Volatility expanded dramatically, with Bollinger Bands widening and RSI entering oversold territory near 25–30.
• Turnover surged to over $90M at the 14:00 ET trough, but volume failed to confirm a bottom, suggesting uncertainty.
• Momentum turned bearish with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and diverging from price during the final 3 hours.

Arweave (ARUSDT) opened at $8.31 on July 22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.44 on July 23 at the same time, reaching a high of $8.35 and a low of $7.42 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 978,228.77 AR tokens, with notional turnover exceeding $7.9M. The price action reflected a bearish breakdown with no immediate reversal signs.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support at $7.44–$7.51 during the 14:00–15:00 ET window, failing to close above the $7.65 level, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $8.16–$8.35 rally. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 13:45–14:00 ET hour, signaling continued selling pressure. No bullish reversal patterns emerged despite the sharp decline.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed price well below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, price closed below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a broader downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative around 13:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold levels between 25 and 30 by 15:00 ET, suggesting a potential bounce could be near. However, the divergence between falling prices and stabilizing RSI implies lingering uncertainty.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect increased trading range. Price closed near the lower band at $7.44, consistent with a bearish breakout scenario. The next few hours will be critical to determine if the price can stabilize above $7.50.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 14:00–15:00 ET period as price dropped below $7.50, with turnover exceeding $90M. However, volume failed to confirm a strong reversal, as price continued lower. The divergence between high turnover and bearish price action raises concerns about further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the $8.16–$8.35 rally include 38.2% at $8.03 and 61.8% at $7.65. Price tested the 61.8% level briefly at $7.65 but failed to hold, suggesting further support testing is likely near $7.50 and $7.40.

Arweave may find temporary support near $7.50–$7.60, but without a clear bullish reversal pattern or a strong volume-driven bounce, the next 24 hours could see further downside. Investors should monitor the 61.8% Fibonacci level and key moving average crossovers for potential trend confirmation. As always, bearish momentum and high volatility increase the risk of sudden price swings.