Arvinas (ARVN) Shares Plunge 2.95% to 2025 Low Amid Mixed Clinical Results and Partnership Uncertainty

Arvinas (ARVN) shares plunged 2.95% on August 7, marking a two-day decline of 18% and falling to their lowest level since May 2025, with an intraday drop of 5.91%. The sharp selloff reflects growing investor skepticism about the biotech firm’s prospects amid mixed clinical data and evolving partnership dynamics.

The strategy of buying ARVN shares after they reached a recent low and selling them a week later resulted in a significant loss. Over the past five years, this strategy yielded a return of -77.65%, compared to a benchmark return of 66.02%. The strategy had a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.63, indicating a high level of risk and poor performance relative to the benchmark.

The stock’s volatility is tied to uncertainty surrounding Vepdegestrant, Arvinas’ lead candidate for advanced breast cancer. Despite submitting a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA in June 2025, the drug’s clinical results showed improved median progression-free survival compared to Fulvestrant but failed to achieve statistical significance. Analysts remain divided: Wells Fargo cut its price target to $16, citing waning Pfizer interest, while H.C. Wainwright raised its target to $24, betting on the drug’s long-term potential despite risks.

Financial pressures further weigh on the stock. Q2 2025 revenue plummeted 71% year-over-year to $22.4 million, driven by reduced collaboration income from Pfizer. The company’s net loss widened to $61.2 million, underscoring its reliance on early-stage pipeline advancements. With cash reserves projected to last until late 2028, Arvinas faces heightened scrutiny to deliver clinical milestones, particularly for ARV-471 in Phase 3 trials.

Strategic shifts in the Pfizer partnership have also clouded expectations. While the 2021 collaboration initially positioned Arvinas for co-commercialization of Vepdegestrant, recent adjustments—such as the removal of combination trials—have shifted focus to independent development. This shift, coupled with bearish short interest (13.56% of shares shorted) and a 68% year-to-date stock decline, highlights the precarious balance between pipeline potential and execution risks.

Market sentiment remains fragmented. Despite a “Moderate Buy” consensus among analysts, divergent views on regulatory outcomes and pipeline progress underscore the high-risk nature of Arvinas’ stock. The FDA’s decision on the Vepdegestrant NDA and near-term data from ARV-471 will likely dictate investor confidence, with the company’s ability to navigate these hurdles critical to its valuation and long-term viability.