Arthur Hayes Warns of 19% Bitcoin Crash and Abandons Major Positions

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts a 19% Bitcoin crash, retesting the $100,000 level, and a potential ETH drop to $3,000. He attributes these forecasts to macroeconomic stress, particularly in the US, and has begun offloading a substantial portion of his crypto holdings. Hayes warns that no major global economy is currently expanding credit to support nominal GDP growth, which could put downward pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has warned of a significant correction in the crypto market, predicting that Bitcoin could fall to the $100,000 level, representing an 18.7% drop from its all-time high, and Ethereum could drop to $3,000. Hayes attributes these forecasts to mounting macroeconomic pressures, particularly in the United States, and has begun offloading a substantial portion of his crypto holdings in anticipation of the potential downturn [1].

Hayes' concerns are rooted in the recent disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed a slowdown in job creation, and sluggish credit growth in major economies. He believes that these factors are stunting nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth and could put downward pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies [2].

The former BitMEX CEO has already sold over $13 million worth of Ethereum (ETH), Ethena (ENA), and Pepe (PEPE) tokens, moving a significant portion of his holdings into USDC (USDC) stablecoins [3]. This strategic move aligns with his long-term bullish view on crypto but reflects a tactical adjustment in response to short-term macroeconomic pressures.

Hayes' predictions have echoed wider fears that macro headwinds could stall crypto's momentum. Industry analysts, such as Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, have noted that Bitcoin has experienced less volatility since the launch of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF in June 2023, suggesting that the days of major double-digit pullbacks may be over [4].

Despite the recent sell-off, Hayes remains optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of cryptocurrencies. He plans to expand his views on derivatives trading and macroeconomic headwinds at the WebX Asia event in Tokyo on August 25, 2025, where he will also explore how trade policy might influence crypto markets in the near term [5].

References
[1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/arthur-hayes-says-bitcoin-may-fall-amid-macro-concerns
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:7166a6ab6094b:0-arthur-hayes-predicts-100k-bitcoin-amid-looming-crypto-crash/
[3] https://api.news.bitcoin.com/wp-json/bcn/v1/post?slug=arthur-hayes-unloads-millions-in-eth-pepe-ena-says-bitcoin-will-test-100k
[4] https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-price-today-flat-at-114k-amid-economic-uncertainty-ether-upbeat-4169206
[5] https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:7166a6ab6094b:0-arthur-hayes-predicts-100k-bitcoin-amid-looming-crypto-crash/