Arthur Hayes Sells HYPE Stake, Reaffirms 126x Price Target Amid Unlocking Fears

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, sold 96,628 Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens for $5.1 million, securing a $823,000 profit just weeks after predicting a 126x price surge to $5,000 Arthur Hayes Sells $HYPE Bag for $5.1M, Nets $823K Profit^[1]. The sale, disclosed on September 21, 2025, occurred amid growing concerns over HYPE’s token supply dynamics. Hayes cited the impending unlocking of 237.8 million HYPE tokens—set to begin on November 29, 2025—linearly over 24 months as a critical factor Arthur Hayes Explained the Reason for Selling HYPE: The Massive Unlocking is the 'Sword of Damocles'^[2]. At $50 per token, this represents $11.9 billion in potential market pressure, with nearly $500 million in tokens entering circulation monthly. Current buyback mechanisms, which use 97% of platform fees to repurchase HYPE, can only absorb 17% of the unlocked supply, leaving a $410 million monthly surplus Arthur Hayes: Due to the Huge Unlocking Pressure, I Have Sold^[3].

Hayes humorously attributed the sale to funding a Ferrari 849 Testarossa deposit but emphasized his long-term bullish thesis. He argued that the stablecoin market’s potential to exceed $10 trillion in supply would drive speculative trading and leverage, positioning Hyperliquid as a beneficiary CZ’s Aster Shakes Hyperliquid as Arthur Hayes Sells - BeInCrypto^[4]. Despite exiting his position, he reiterated that a 126x price target by 2028 remains plausible, though the timeline allows for adjustments Hyperliquid HYPE Token Unlocks & Vesting Schedules - DefiLlama^[5]. This duality—selling for profit while maintaining a bullish narrative—highlights the tension between short-term market realities and long-term project potential in crypto investing.

The market reacted swiftly to Hayes’ move. HYPE dropped nearly 5% in the wake of the sale, with on-chain data revealing a whale withdrawing $122 million in HYPE tokens—likely in preparation for profit-taking HYPE Whale Unstakes $107M, Raising Fears of a Sell-off^[6]. Meanwhile, the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund, which has accumulated over $1 billion in HYPE through buybacks, continues to act as a stabilizing force. Analysts note that while buybacks have supported the token’s price (up 65% in a month), critics argue the strategy is unsustainable long-term, as it frontloads demand without addressing structural supply issues Hyperliquid’s Token Buyback Machine Just Hit $1B^[7].

The unlocking pressure is not the only challenge. Competitors like Binance-backed Aster and OKX’s Star Xu have introduced alternative decentralized perpetual trading platforms, intensifying market competition Hyperliquid (HYPE) | Tokenomics, Supply & Release Schedule^[8]. Hayes’ strategic accumulation of Ethena’s ENA token—linked to Hyperliquid’s USDH integration—suggests a broader bet on the ecosystem’s growth rather than a full exit from HYPE HYPE Token Unlocks: 344K Daily Supply Influx Threatens Hyperliquid Price Stability^[9]. However, the interplay between tokenomics, market sentiment, and competitive dynamics remains a key uncertainty for HYPE’s trajectory.

The sell-off underscores the risks of token supply inflation in high-growth crypto projects. With 344,000 HYPE tokens entering circulation daily starting in late November—6.5x the current buyback capacity—prices could face downward pressure unless demand outpaces supply . While Hayes and others remain optimistic, the market’s ability to absorb unlocking tokens will depend on Hyperliquid’s continued adoption and the effectiveness of buybacks. For now, HYPE’s future hinges on balancing speculative fervor with structural sustainability.