Arthur Hayes Sells HYPE for Profit, Defying Own $5K 2028 Prediction

Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, experienced a notable price decline following a $5.1 million sell-off by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who offloaded 96,628 HYPE tokens in late September. The transaction, which netted Hayes a 19% profit of $823,000, occurred just weeks after he predicted the token could rise 126-fold to $5,000 by 2028. Despite the short-term exit, Hayes reiterated his long-term bullish stance, citing Hyperliquid’s role in a growing decentralized perpetuals market and the potential for stablecoin-driven fee revenue expansion.

Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange (DEX) specializing in leveraged trading, has demonstrated robust performance metrics. As of August 2025, the platform reported 198,397 open positions, $15 billion in open interest, and $31 billion in total wallet equity. Daily trading volume hit a record $1.56 billion, with August fees reaching $93 million, reflecting its dominance in the decentralized perpetuals sector. The platform holds a 75% market share in this niche, outpacing competitors like dYdX. Additionally, Hyperliquid’s integration of USDH, a stablecoin backed by Ethena Labs and BlackRock, has bolstered its ecosystem, with 95% of USDH revenue pledged back to the protocol.

The sell-off triggered a 10% drop in HYPE’s price, erasing $1.7 billion from its market capitalization. On-chain data revealed further pressure from a major whale—believed to be Techno Revenant—who withdrew 2.39 million HYPE tokens ($122 million) from a wallet with a nine-month-old position. This activity, coupled with Hayes’ exit, raised concerns about short-term liquidity. However, Hayes’ family office, Maelstrom, attributed the sale to an impending token unlock of 238 million HYPE tokens starting November 29, which could create a monthly supply overhang of $410 million. The firm noted that buyback programs, which currently absorb 17% of the unlock, may struggle to offset the supply surge.

Hayes’ prediction of a 126x price surge hinges on stablecoin growth and regulatory shifts. He argued that annualized fee revenue could rise from $1.2 billion to $258 billion, driven by increased retail adoption of leveraged trading and fiat de-pegging. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) recent focus on easing retail crypto access under Chair Paul Atkins could further catalyze Hyperliquid’s ecosystem. However, challenges remain, including the platform’s deflationary tokenomics—97% of fees are reinvested into HYPE buybacks—which must counterbalance the looming unlock.

Market sentiment also faces pressure from emerging rivals. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s launch of Aster, a decentralized perpetuals platform, has introduced competition, with OKX CEO Star Xu acknowledging the threat. Hayes’ strategic accumulation of $1 million in Ethena’s ENA token ahead of Hyperliquid’s USDH vote suggests a broader bet on the DeFi ecosystem’s growth, rather than a complete exit from HYPE. Analysts remain divided: while some view Hayes’ actions as a pragmatic short-term move, others argue it contradicts his long-term narrative.

Despite the volatility, HYPE remains a top performer in the current crypto cycle, having surged 1,400% since its November 2024 launch. Its market capitalization of $16.21 billion underscores its significance, though the path to Hayes’ $5,000 target requires sustained fee growth, effective buybacks, and navigating regulatory and competitive headwinds.