Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Dip to $90,000-$95,000 Amid U.S. Liquidity Contraction

Arthur Hayes, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency market, has predicted a temporary dip in Bitcoin prices due to anticipated liquidity contractions in the U.S. market. This forecast comes as the U.S. Treasury is expected to take actions that could significantly impact the overall liquidity, potentially affecting the volatility of the crypto market.

Hayes' analysis focuses on the "Big Beautiful Act," a legislation aimed at raising the debt ceiling. This act could lead to a temporary reduction in liquidity, with estimates suggesting a possible shrink by $486 billion. This contraction is expected to result from replenishing the Treasury General Account, which could range between $364 billion and $850 billion. The potential impact on Bitcoin prices is significant, with Hayes suggesting that the cryptocurrency could dip to the $90,000–$95,000 range. However, if the impact is limited, Bitcoin might remain around $100,000 without breaking past its recent high.

Despite the short-term volatility, Hayes maintains a bullish long-term view on Bitcoin. He predicts that the cryptocurrency could reach $1 million by 2028. This optimistic outlook is based on a combination of factors, including the economic policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump and rising global instability. Hayes believes that these factors will drive investors away from U.S. government debt and towards Bitcoin, further boosting its value.

Historical data supports the idea that liquidity contractions can temporarily affect Bitcoin prices. During the 2023 U.S. debt ceiling negotiations, similar Treasury General Account-related liquidity contractions led to a temporary dip in Bitcoin prices. However, the cryptocurrency quickly recovered once the situation was resolved, indicating that such impacts are often short-lived.

As of July 3, 2025, Bitcoin is priced at $109,362.67, with a market cap of $2.17 trillion and a market dominance of 64.34%. The cryptocurrency has shown significant volatility, with a 24-hour trading volume of $56.65 billion. Over the last day, Bitcoin gained 2.57%, and over the past 90 days, it has increased by 31.58%. These figures highlight the dynamic nature of the crypto market and the potential for significant price movements in response to liquidity shifts and other market factors.

Investors and market participants are closely monitoring these developments, particularly in light of the upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. The anticipated correlation between Treasury actions and digital asset valuations underscores the importance of staying informed about monetary policy shifts and their potential impact on the crypto market. As the market awaits clearer signals, the focus remains on how liquidity contractions and other factors will shape the future of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.