Arthur Hayes: Does the Election Outcome Matter for Crypto?

As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, the crypto market buzzes with speculation about what's next. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, joins Unchained to discuss how Bitcoin and altcoins might react depending on who wins. Hayes shares his insights on election trade strategies, from sticking to the majors to his preference for Solana over Ethereum in the short term.

Hayes believes that the election outcome matters less for crypto than many think. In an interview with Unchained, he stated, "Bitcoin is a long-term trend, and elections are just noise." He prefers sticking to major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a short-term preference for Solana over Ethereum. He's not interested in short-term election trades, focusing instead on long-term trends.

Hayes thinks Trump's pro-crypto stance could boost the market, but he's unsure if Trump will fulfill his promises. He expects a reform around crypto regulation after the election, regardless of the outcome. Hayes predicts that global central banks' liquidity injection, not election outcomes, will drive the next crypto market surge. He advises investors to prioritize inflation-resistant assets and avoid reacting to political volatility.


Hayes' theory on why SOL has outperformed ETH is that SOL's faster transaction processing and lower gas fees make it an attractive option for short-term trading. However, he's not planning to engage in short-term trades during the election, focusing instead on long-term strategies. He views the election as a distraction from Bitcoin's long-term bullish trend, suggesting that the market's reaction to the election outcome may not significantly impact his investment decisions.

Hayes also discusses the potential impact of the election on crypto regulation. He believes that a Harris victory could lead to increased regulation, while a Trump victory might result in a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets. However, he cautions that the election outcome may not have a significant impact on the crypto market in the short term, as Bitcoin's long-term bullish trend remains intact.


In conclusion, Arthur Hayes believes that the election outcome matters less for crypto than many think. He advises investors to stick to the majors, prioritize inflation-resistant assets, and avoid reacting to political volatility. While the election may introduce some short-term market noise, Hayes remains confident in Bitcoin's long-term bullish trend and the potential for global central banks' liquidity injection to drive the next crypto market surge.