Arthur Hayes-Backed RIVER Coin Skyrockets 1,200% in Three Weeks as Bitcoin Predictions Intensify

River (RIVER), a chain-abstraction stablecoin system backed by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, surged 1,200% in three weeks, reaching $38.32 as of January 16, 2026. The rally followed an investment from Hayes' fund, Maelstrom in early January. RIVER had traded at $2.80 on Christmas Day, indicating a dramatic price movement driven by institutional interest and market momentum. The token's valuation has climbed to approximately $3.8 billion.

Arthur Hayes has remained bullish on Bitcoin, predicting that the cryptocurrency will return to new all-time highs in 2026. He attributes this potential rally to increased dollar liquidity and monetary expansion, including the Federal Reserve's balance sheet growth and lower mortgage rates. Hayes emphasized that Bitcoin's value is closely linked to liquidity conditions and that its 2025 underperformance was a result of tightened liquidity rather than structural issues.

Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $843.62 million on January 14, 2026, reversing a week of outflows. This inflow indicates growing institutional and retail interest in crypto assets, particularly as liquidity improves. Bitcoin's price has shown signs of recovery, trading near $96,448.

Why Did This Happen?

River's explosive price growth is attributed to Maelstrom's investment, which triggered strong market interest. The project's chain-abstraction system allows cross-chain yield, leverage, and scaling using satUSD, an omni-CDP stablecoin. This innovation, combined with institutional backing, has attracted attention from both retail and institutional investors.

Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin's recent underperformance compared to gold and tech stocks was a temporary liquidity-driven cycle. He believes that Bitcoin's future growth is tied to fiat currency devaluation and expanding liquidity. The rise of AI-driven tech stocks in 2025 has shifted capital away from crypto, but Hayes anticipates a reversal in 2026.

How Did Markets React?

RIVER's price rally has outperformed the broader crypto market, which has faced volatility due to regulatory scrutiny and liquidity constraints. The token is listed on major exchanges such as Kraken, HTX, Bitget, MEXC, and BingX, contributing to its liquidity and accessibility.

Bitcoin ETFs have also seen renewed interest, with inflows signaling improved investor sentiment. Analysts at JPMorgan predict that Bitcoin and crypto ETFs could attract over $130 billion in inflows in 2026, driven by regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. However, regulatory delays have introduced uncertainty.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Investors are closely watching whether the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy will drive dollar liquidity expansion. Hayes believes this is a key condition for Bitcoin's price to reach new highs in 2026. The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and government-backed initiatives in AI and defense spending are seen as potential catalysts for liquidity growth.

Regulatory developments are also under scrutiny. A New York prosecutor has called for stricter enforcement against unlicensed crypto operations, signaling renewed political pressure on the sector. These developments suggest that regulatory risk is increasingly intertwined with political risk, adding complexity for market participants.

Bitcoin's role as a monetary hedge against inflation and currency devaluation remains a key narrative. Hayes argues that sustained fiat currency devaluation is necessary for Bitcoin to reach levels above $100,000. As liquidity conditions improve, investors are expected to revisit Bitcoin and other crypto assets as alternatives to traditional markets.