Arthur Hayes Anticipates US Money Printing, Maelstrom Near Fully Invested in DeFi

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, anticipates the U.S. will engage in aggressive monetary expansion, which could drive Bitcoin higher. His latest article outlines a potential shift in policy and its implications for the crypto market. Hayes has positioned his family office, Maelstrom Fund, to capitalize on this trend, with the fund nearing full investment in DeFi protocols. This strategy aligns with his broader belief in the long-term value of decentralized finance and Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Fund has made a strategic investment in River, a chain-abstraction stablecoin system. The investment supports River’s mission to enable seamless capital movement across blockchain ecosystems. River currently supports over $300 million in TVL, with satUSD circulation surpassing $100 million. The partnership signals continued innovation in stablecoin infrastructure and cross-chain liquidity solutions.

On-chain data shows that Hayes has deployed over $3.4 million in four DeFi tokens, including ENA, ETHFI, PENDLE, and LDO. The bulk of the investment is in PENDLE, a yield tokenization protocol, reflecting his confidence in its long-term fundamentals. Hayes has been accumulating these tokens during price dips, indicating a belief in their undervaluation and growth potential.

The recent investment by Hayes comes as DeFi tokens trade below their all-time highs, reflecting a broader market downturn. However, key catalysts like ETF prospects and protocol-specific developments could drive value creation. For instance, ENA may benefit from Bitwise’s recent ETF filing, which includes 11 cryptocurrencies.

The DeFi market has seen notable developments, including token emission reductions and buybacks, which could improve token economics. ETHFI, for example, is implementing weekly buybacks of $500,000 to $1.5 million, aiming to reduce sell pressure. These measures align with Hayes’ long-term investment strategy.

Market sentiment toward DeFi remains mixed, with regulatory uncertainty and competition posing challenges. However, Hayes’ approach emphasizes fundamental value over short-term speculation. Analysts are watching how regulatory clarity, token emission schedules, and institutional adoption will shape the sector’s trajectory.

Bitcoin prices have stabilized around $93,500, with renewed investor interest in the asset’s potential as a macro hedge. The price has faced pressure from treasury companies and macroeconomic uncertainties, though risk appetite has improved in early 2026. Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 was volatile, with prices dropping by more than 6% year-to-date.

Arthur Hayes’ recent bets contrast with other market participants, such as Kain Warwick, who lost a $50,000 bet after predicting Ether would hit $25,000 in 2025. The market ended the year at around $2,980, far below the target. Despite this, Hayes remains bullish, with a price target of $10,000 for Ethereum in 2026.

Bitcoin ATM networks have also drawn regulatory scrutiny after reports of $333 million in U.S. scam losses linked to the machines. Regulators are reclassifying the machines as a systemic risk, shifting from consumer education to stricter policy measures. This could impact liquidity in the retail crypto market and influence broader adoption trends.

Why Did This Happen?

Arthur Hayes’ strategic allocation into DeFi and Bitcoin reflects a broader macroeconomic view of monetary expansion and digital asset adoption. He anticipates a U.S. policy shift that could include aggressive money printing, which may favor Bitcoin as a store of value. This strategy is not solely speculative but grounded in protocol fundamentals and long-term market dynamics.

The DeFi sector is also showing signs of recovery through revenue generation and token buybacks. Projects like Pendle and ETHFI are taking steps to improve token economics, which could attract institutional and retail investors. These developments align with Hayes’ thesis that DeFi is entering a phase of structural improvement.

How Did Markets Respond?

The market has reacted to Hayes’ moves with a mix of optimism and caution. DeFi tokens like PENDLE and ETHFI have seen increased buying pressure as investors assess their potential. However, the broader market remains cautious, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fluctuating amid macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory developments.

Investor sentiment is also influenced by recent developments in the U.S. treasury market, where companies like Strategy Inc. reported significant unrealized losses on Bitcoin holdings. This has prompted a reevaluation of crypto exposure, particularly for institutions with large digital asset portfolios.

The regulatory environment remains a key determinant for DeFi and Bitcoin’s trajectory. As governments refine policies around digital assets, investors are closely monitoring enforcement actions and legislative developments. These factors could either accelerate or hinder the adoption of decentralized finance and blockchain-based solutions.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are focused on several key indicators that could determine the future of the crypto market. These include regulatory updates, token emission schedules, and macroeconomic policy shifts. For instance, the U.S. Fed’s balance sheet management and monetary policy are closely watched for signals of inflation control and liquidity injection.

Investors are also tracking developments in the institutional sector, including ETF approvals and corporate adoption of crypto assets. The performance of crypto stocks, such as Bitmine and Riot Platforms, will provide further insight into market sentiment. These companies are seen as bellwethers for broader adoption and institutional confidence.

The DeFi sector’s ability to innovate and adapt will also be critical. Projects that can demonstrate improved tokenomics and real-world utility are likely to attract more investment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold and other traditional assets will remain a key benchmark for its role as a macro hedge.

In summary, Arthur Hayes’ recent investments reflect a strategic bet on the future of digital assets and monetary policy. The market is responding with a cautious optimism, as investors weigh the potential of DeFi and Bitcoin against macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory risks. This strategic positioning reflects a broader view of the market’s future trajectory.