Arthur Hayes' $5.16 Trillion HYPE Valuation Hinges on Stablecoin's Future

Hyperliquid, a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange, is making waves in the digital assets market with its unique on-chain infrastructure and strategic positioning in the stablecoin ecosystem. The platform, led by founder Jeff Yan, has gained traction in the decentralized perpetual futures trading segment, capturing approximately two-thirds of the market share. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has highlighted Hyperliquid’s potential to disrupt traditional trading models by leveraging its fast execution and transparent, on-chain operations [1].

The native token of Hyperliquid, HYPE, serves as both a governance and economic utility tool, enabling holders to participate in platform upgrades, stake for rewards, and benefit from trading fee structures that are directly tied to token value. Hayes, known for his role in popularizing perpetual swap contracts, argues that Hyperliquid is positioned as a “decentralized Binance.” The platform functions similarly to centralized exchanges in terms of user experience but operates entirely on a blockchain, offering a more transparent and decentralized alternative [1].

Hayes’ bullish outlook for HYPE is supported by a valuation model developed by Maelstrom, which forecasts a $10 trillion stablecoin supply by 2028. Using this projection, he estimates that Hyperliquid could process up to $2.6 trillion in daily trades if it captures a comparable market share to Binance. At a 0.03% trading fee, this would generate approximately $258 billion in annual revenues. Applying a 5% discount rate to account for risk and time value, the present value of these potential earnings could reach $5.16 trillion. Given HYPE’s current fully diluted valuation of around $41 billion, Hayes suggests a theoretical 126x upside for the token [1].

The model hinges on several key assumptions: the rapid growth of the stablecoin market, Hyperliquid maintaining a significant market share, and stable fee structures over time. If these conditions do not materialize, the projected valuation could be significantly affected. However, Hayes emphasizes that Hyperliquid’s architecture—rooted in on-chain execution and rapid feature development—positions it well to compete with larger, centralized exchanges. The platform’s HIP-3 upgrade further enhances its appeal by allowing external developers to integrate new markets into its order book, fostering a permissionless and open trading environment [1].

Hayes’ analysis ties Hyperliquid’s growth potential to broader macroeconomic trends, particularly the erosion of fiat currencies due to global monetary expansion. He argues that individuals, especially in emerging markets, are increasingly turning to stablecoins as a form of savings. Once users hold stablecoins, they are naturally drawn to crypto trading platforms where those tokens can be utilized most effectively. Hyperliquid, with its transparent and fast execution model, is uniquely positioned to benefit from this shift [1].

While Hayes’ projections are ambitious, they are grounded in the firm’s current market position and underlying economic logic. The model underscores the growing importance of stablecoins in the crypto ecosystem and highlights Hyperliquid’s potential to become a dominant player in on-chain trading. As the market continues to evolve, the success of HYPE will depend on the platform’s ability to sustain innovation and maintain its competitive edge in a rapidly changing industry [1].

Source: [1] Hyperliquid's HYPE Token: Why Arthur Hayes ... - CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/30/hyperliquid-s-hype-token-why-arthur-hayes-thinks-it-has-126x-upside-potential)