Arthur Hayes' 126x HYPE Prediction Drives Decentralized Derivatives Race

Hyperliquid Protocol has demonstrated robust performance amid the recent volatility in XPL markets, reinforcing its position as a leading decentralized exchange for perpetual futures. The platform's native token, HYPE, saw a notable rally of nearly 4% in the 24-hour period leading up to July 14, with its price briefly touching $47. As of the latest available data, the token was trading at $45.64, remaining close to its all-time high of just under $50, achieved on July 14 [2]. This upward movement coincided with a bullish forecast from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who projected a 126x return for HYPE over the next three years during a keynote at the WebX 2025 conference in Tokyo [2].

Hayes attributed the potential for such a dramatic rise to the anticipated expansion of stablecoin usage, which he expects to significantly boost Hyperliquid’s annualized fees. Currently at $1.2 billion, Hayes predicts this figure could surge to $258 billion, driven by the platform’s growing dominance in the decentralized derivatives market [2]. Hyperliquid’s total open positions hit an all-time high of 198,397 on July 14, while open interest surpassed $15 billion. Total wallet equity peaked at $31 billion, demonstrating the platform’s increasing adoption and user engagement [2].

The protocol’s capacity to handle large volumes has also been a key factor in its success. Over the weekend of July 13-14, Hyperliquid reported an all-time high in daily trading volume of $1.56 billion. This surge is supported by a steady rise in transaction fees, which have hit a monthly high of $93 million in July [2]. According to Redstone, the platform has captured over 75% of the decentralized perpetual exchange market in less than two years, surpassing competitors like dYdX and drawing comparisons to centralized exchanges like Binance in terms of volume on certain trading pairs [2].

Technological innovation continues to underpin Hyperliquid’s growth. The protocol is currently testing a builder-deployed perpetuals feature under HIP-3, which aims to further decentralize the market listing process [1]. This innovation allows deployers to create and manage perpetual markets with permissionless access, while also introducing additional fee-sharing models and governance mechanisms. To ensure market quality and user protection, deployers must stake 1 million HYPE tokens and are subject to potential slashing by validators in case of malicious activity [1]. These open interest caps—both notional and size-based—serve to maintain market stability and user confidence.

As Hyperliquid continues to evolve, its ability to sustain performance during periods of market turbulence underscores its resilience and appeal to both institutional and retail participants. The platform’s expansion in both user base and trading activity highlights the potential for decentralized finance to reshape the derivatives market landscape in the coming years.

Source:

[1] HIP-3: Builder-deployed perpetuals - Hyperliquid Docs - GitBook (https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/hyperliquid-improvement-proposals-hips/hip-3-builder-deployed-perpetuals)

[2] Hyperliquid spikes as Arthur Hayes predicts 126x upside in ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/hyperliquid-hype-spikes-arthur-hayes-predicts-126x-upside)