Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Plummets 8.7%: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• ARWR drops 8.7% to $62.49, erasing $6B in market cap
• Insider sells 184K shares at $67, triggering investor panic
• FDA approval momentum clashes with regulatory uncertainty
• Options chain shows 75% implied volatility, signaling extreme volatility

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is in freefall after a dramatic intraday plunge of 8.7%, trading at $62.49 with a 52-week low of $9.57 looming. The selloff follows a $67/share insider transaction, regulatory scrutiny over inducement grants, and conflicting analyst ratings. With 2.3M shares traded and a 1.85% turnover rate, the stock is testing critical support levels as options volatility spikes to 75%.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Insider Sales Trigger Sharp Selloff
The 8.7% intraday drop stems from a perfect storm of regulatory uncertainty and insider selling. On December 16, Chairman Christopher Anzalone surrendered 184,298 shares at $67, a 10% premium to current price, signaling internal caution. Simultaneously, the company announced 141,310 restricted stock unit grants to 78 employees under NASDAQ Rule 5635(c)(4), raising questions about governance. These moves collided with mixed analyst ratings - while Piper Sandler raised its target to $70, Weiss Ratings issued a 'sell' call. The selloff accelerated as options traders priced in 75% implied volatility, reflecting fears of further regulatory scrutiny.

Biotech Sector Under Pressure as AMGN Drags Down
The biotech sector is broadly under pressure, with Amgen (AMGN) down 0.29% despite being the sector leader. ARWR's 8.7% drop outperforms the sector's average decline, highlighting its unique catalysts. While AMGN's modest decline reflects broader market jitters, ARWR's selloff is driven by specific governance concerns and regulatory uncertainty. The sector's 14.23% CAGR forecast for cell and gene therapy CDMO markets contrasts sharply with ARWR's immediate volatility.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with ARWR20260116P60 and ARWR20260116C60
• 200-day MA: $25.05 (far below)
• RSI: 76.17 (overbought)
• MACD: 7.86 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $31.60-$80.46 (wide range)
• 30D Support: $39.83-$40.49
• 200D Support: $14.86-$16.07

Key levels to watch: $60 (psychological floor), $55 (critical support), and $50 (long-term trend). The RSI at 76.17 suggests overbought conditions, but the MACD divergence indicates potential for further downside. With 75% implied volatility, options offer compelling leverage. Two top picks:

• ARWR20260116P60: Put option with 73.83% IV, 15.67% leverage, delta -0.37, theta -0.045, gamma 0.0276
• ARWR20260116C60: Call option with 72.27% IV, 9.22% leverage, delta 0.629, theta -0.1218, gamma 0.0282

Under a 5% downside scenario (ST=$59.37), P60 payoff would be $0.63/share (6.3% return on $539,350 turnover). C60 would expire worthless, but its high gamma (0.0282) offers rapid delta shifts if price recovers. These options balance volatility capture with liquidity (P60 turnover $53,935; C60 $22,800).

Aggressive bulls should consider ARWR20260116C60 into a bounce above $60. Conservative bears may target ARWR20260116P60 as a hedge against further declines. With 16 days to expiration, time decay (theta) favors short-term directional bets.

Backtest Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Stock Performance
The ARWR ETF has experienced a total of three days with an intraday percentage change of less than -9% since 2022. While the 3-day win rate is 48.50%, the 10-day win rate is slightly higher at 50.30%, indicating that the ETF tends to recover moderately well in the short term after such significant drops. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.13% over 30 days, suggesting that while there is potential for recovery, the returns are generally modest in the medium to long term.

Act Now: ARWR’s Volatility Presents High-Risk, High-Reward Opportunities
The 8.7% selloff has created a volatile but potentially lucrative trading environment. With 75% implied volatility and a 76.17 RSI reading, the stock is primed for a sharp directional move. While Amgen (AMGN) declines 0.29%, ARWR's unique catalysts suggest continued turbulence. Investors should monitor the $60 support level and watch for a potential bounce into the $65-70 range. For those with high-risk tolerance, the ARWR20260116P60 put offers downside protection, while the C60 call captures upside potential. Watch for $60 breakdown or regulatory reaction.