Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Surges 21.47%: FDA Approval and Novartis Deal Ignite Biotech Rally

Summary
• Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) surges 21.47% to $56.84, hitting a 52-week high of $58.45
• FDA approves Redemplo, Arrowhead’s first siRNA therapy for FCS, with Novartis licensing deal adding $200M upfront
• Earnings call highlights obesity programs and CNS pipeline, but near-term commercial sales remain muted

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is experiencing a historic intraday rally, driven by a transformative FDA approval and a blockbuster licensing deal. The stock’s 21.47% surge reflects investor optimism over Redemplo’s commercial potential and the Novartis collaboration, despite ongoing financial challenges. With the biotech sector broadly positive, ARWR’s move underscores the market’s appetite for innovation in RNAi therapeutics.

FDA Approval and Novartis Collaboration Fuel Explosive Move
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ 21.47% intraday surge is directly tied to two landmark developments: the FDA’s approval of Redemplo, its first siRNA therapy for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), and a $200 million upfront licensing deal with Novartis for AeroSNCA. The Redemplo approval marks Arrowhead’s transition to a commercial-stage biotech, offering a differentiated treatment for a rare disease with a convenient dosing regimen. Meanwhile, the Novartis agreement provides immediate capital and access to a $2 billion milestone potential, validating Arrowhead’s TRiM™ platform. The earnings call further reinforced momentum, with executives emphasizing Redemplo’s best-in-class attributes and the obesity programs’ data timeline in early 2026. These catalysts have ignited speculative fervor, despite the company’s near-term financial constraints.

Biotech Sector Rises on Innovation Momentum, Amgen Leads
The broader biotech sector is in positive territory, with Amgen (AMGN) up 0.91% as a sector leader. Arrowhead’s 21.47% move outpaces Amgen’s modest gain, reflecting the market’s focus on high-impact innovation rather than traditional large-cap stability. While Amgen’s performance highlights the sector’s resilience, Arrowhead’s rally underscores the premium investors are willing to pay for transformative pipeline milestones. The sector’s recent strength, fueled by Nobel Prize-related optimism and AI-driven drug discovery partnerships, creates a favorable backdrop for speculative plays like ARWR.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on Volatility and Momentum
• 200-day average: $22.17 (far below current price); RSI: 69.83 (neutral to overbought); MACD: 1.56 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $56.84, well above upper band of $44.92, signaling extreme volatility

Arrowhead’s technicals and options chain present a high-risk, high-reward setup. The stock’s 21.47% surge has pushed it far above its 200-day average and into overbought territory, but the MACD and RSI suggest momentum remains intact. Two options stand out for aggressive positioning:

• ARWR20251219C60 (Call, $60 strike, 12/19 expiration):
- IV: 67.10% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.42 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1158 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0399 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $153,158 (liquid)
- Leverage ratio: 20.67% (high)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($59.68): $9.68 per contract
- This call benefits from Arrowhead’s short-term volatility and high gamma, offering significant leverage if the stock continues upward.

• ARWR20260116C55 (Call, $55 strike, 1/16 expiration):
- IV: 56.35% (reasonable)
- Delta: 0.62 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0671 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0314 (solid sensitivity)
- Turnover: $92,025 (liquid)
- Leverage ratio: 9.51% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($59.68): $4.68 per contract
- This option balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a mid-term bullish bet on Redemplo’s commercial rollout.

Aggressive bulls should consider ARWR20251219C60 into a break above $60, while those seeking a safer entry might target ARWR20260116C55 as a mid-term play on the Novartis deal’s follow-through.

Backtest Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Stock Performance
Here is the event-study back-test for ARWR after a ≥ 21 % daily price surge (2022-01-01 – 2025-11-26). Only one such event (2024-11-29) met the threshold during the period, so conclusions should be interpreted with due caution: performance in the following month showed a mean draw-down of roughly –27 % and no statistically significant positive drift.You can review the interactive report below.(If the module does not load automatically, please refresh the page.)

Arrowhead’s Volatility Intensifies: Position for Breakouts or Breakdowns
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ 21.47% surge is a testament to the market’s hunger for innovation, but its sustainability hinges on near-term execution. The stock’s extreme volatility, coupled with a 69.83 RSI and MACD divergence, suggests a high-risk environment. Investors should monitor the $58.45 52-week high as a critical resistance level and the $45.09 intraday low for potential support. Amgen’s 0.91% gain as a sector leader indicates broader biotech strength, but Arrowhead’s move is driven by unique catalysts. For those willing to ride the wave, ARWR20251219C60 offers explosive potential if the stock breaks above $60. However, a pullback below $55 could trigger a reevaluation of the rally’s durability. Position accordingly—either capitalize on the momentum or hedge against a sharp reversal.