Under Armour Plunges 21.91%—Can This Retail Sector Titan Rebound?

Summary
• Under Armour (UAA) trades at $5.185, down 21.91% from its $6.64 close
• Intraday range spans $5.13 to $5.645 amid bearish technicals
• Earnings miss and profit warning due to Trump-era tariffs trigger selloff

Under Armour’s stock has imploded in real-time trading, driven by a Q1 earnings shortfall and dire profit forecasts. With the 52-week low at $4.78 now in sight, the apparel giant faces a perfect storm of regulatory headwinds and weak guidance. The Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) signal and a -5.75 P/E ratio underscore the gravity of the situation, as investors grapple with the sustainability of this sharp decline.

Tariffs and Earnings Shock Fuel Retail Sector Exodus
Under Armour’s collapse stems from a dual blow: a Q1 earnings miss of 33.33% and a profit warning exacerbated by Trump-era tariffs. The company’s $0.02 EPS fell short of $0.03 estimates, while revenue of $1.13 billion, though exceeding forecasts, failed to offset the broader bearish narrative. CEO commentary on tariffs and the Zacks Rank downgrade to 4 (Sell) have amplified fears of prolonged underperformance, with the Textile - Apparel industry’s bottom-23% Zacks ranking compounding the pressure.

Apparel Sector Suffers as Tariffs Bite—NIKE Trails 0.85%
The Apparel, Accessories, and Luxury Goods sector mirrors Under Armour’s struggles, with NIKE (NKE) down 0.85% as tariffs weigh on margins. G-III Apparel Group (GIII), another sector peer, faces a 80.8% year-over-year EPS decline, reflecting industry-wide headwinds. While Under Armour’s 21.91% drop is extreme, the sector’s broader malaise—driven by regulatory uncertainty and shifting consumer demand—highlights systemic risks for exposed players.

Bearish Playbook: Options and Technicals for a Volatile Rebound
• MACD: -0.047 (bearish divergence), RSI: 44.5 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $6.42–$7.38 (price near lower band)
• 200-day MA: $7.45 (price 31% below), 30-day MA: $6.93 (resistance ahead)

Under Armour’s technicals signal a short-term bearish bias, with the 52-week low at $4.78 and 200-day MA at $7.45 forming critical levels. The UAA20250815P5 put option (strike $5, expiring 8/15) and UAA20250919P5 (strike $5, expiring 9/19) offer compelling bearish exposure. The former has 54.77% implied volatility, 57.50% leverage, and 125% price change, while the latter boasts 43.12% IV and 24.64% leverage. A 5% downside to $4.925 would yield put payoffs of $0.075 (UAA20250815P5) and $0.275 (UAA20250919P5), justifying aggressive shorting ahead of key support tests.

Backtest Under Armour Stock Performance
The backtest of UAA's performance after a -22% intraday plunge shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating the stock tended to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels:

UAA at Crossroads—Watch $4.78 Breakdown or Sector Rally
Under Armour’s 21.91% plunge reflects a confluence of earnings disappointment, tariff fears, and weak sector dynamics. While the 52-week low at $4.78 looms as a critical psychological threshold, the Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) and -5.75 P/E ratio suggest further downside. Investors should monitor NIKE’s -0.85% move for sector cues and Under Armour’s ability to hold above $4.78. Aggressive bears may target the UAA20250815P5 put for a 5% downside play, but a rebound above $5.645 could trigger short-covering rallies. Act now: Short UAA20250815P5 if $4.78 breaks, or pivot to NKE longs if tariffs ease.