Arm Holdings Jumps 4.62% as Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal Toward $155 Resistance

Arm Holdings (ARM) rose 4.62% in the latest session, marking two consecutive days of gains with a total increase of 6.48% over this period. This recent bullish momentum has brought the stock to close at $153.90, approaching key resistance levels after recovering from a recent pullback.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns suggest a potential bullish reversal. The July 14 session formed a hammer-like candle with a low of $140.70 and close near the high of the session ($144.54), signaling rejection of lower prices after a decline. This was followed by two consecutive green candles with higher highs and higher lows, culminating in a strong breakout candle on July 16 that closed near its high ($153.90). Key support is now established at $146.35 (July 15 low) and $140.70 (July 14 low), while resistance is observed at $155.04 (July 16 high) and $157.42 (July 3 high). A close above $155 would likely confirm bullish continuation potential.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average structure supports a moderately bullish intermediate trend. The 50-day SMA (approximately $150.50) is trending upward, with the price recently reclaiming this level decisively. The 100-day SMA (approximately $144.80) provided dynamic support during the July 14 pullback, while the 200-day SMA (approximately $135.20) continues to slope upward, confirming the broader bullish trend. Recent price action has positioned the stock above all three key moving averages (50/100/200-day), which may now act as technical support. The golden cross between the 50-day and 200-day SMA, established earlier in the recovery cycle, remains intact.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive following a bullish crossover, with momentum accelerating during the two-day rally. The KDJ oscillator shows %K (76) and %D (68) both trending upward from oversold territory, reflecting improving short-term momentum. However, the J-line (92) has entered overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term consolidation risk. No bearish divergences are present, but traders should monitor whether KDJ sustains above 80, which historically preceded minor pullbacks in this security. The MACD signal line crossover appears robust given the accompanying volume surge.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day period) show expanding volatility, with the July 16 price close touching the upper band ($153.60). This expansion follows a compression period in late June, indicating resolution of consolidation in the direction of the breakout. Price trading near the upper band suggests near-term overextension, which may invite profit-taking. However, the band expansion itself supports continuation potential if the breakout holds. Lower band support converges with the 100-day SMA near $145.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns strongly validate the recent bullish move. The July 16 rally occurred on significantly above-average volume (7.43M shares vs. 30-day avg ~5.2M), confirming institutional participation. This follows a low-volume pullback on July 15 (4.18M shares), suggesting weak conviction during the decline. Volume divergence is absent, as both price highs and lows are validated by corresponding volume spikes, including the July 14 bottom formation (5.88M shares). The volume profile suggests sustainable upward momentum near-term.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads 62, rebounding sharply from oversold conditions below 30 during the July decline. While not yet overbought (>70), the current reading shows accelerating momentum. The RSI trendline has broken above its moving average, confirming bullish momentum shift. Historical observations note that Arm Holdings' RSI frequently reaches 70 before significant reversals; current positioning suggests room for further upside before reaching overbought territory. The rapid recovery from oversold conditions reinforces the strength of the current upswing.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing high/low ($168.31 on June 30 to $140.70 on July 14) shows the current price trading between key levels. The 38.2% retracement ($151.24) was convincingly breached during the rally, while the 50% level ($154.50) aligns with the July 16 high of $155.04. This level now represents critical resistance, with confluence provided by the July 3 swing high. A sustained move above $154.50 would target the 61.8% retracement at $157.66, which also aligns with the June 27 gap-down resistance. Support now clusters at the 23.6% level ($147.21), matching the July 15 low.
Multiple technical indicators converge to support a constructive near-term outlook for Arm Holdings, with the recent breakout backed by volume expansion, moving average support, and momentum oscillator confirmations. However, proximity to the 50% Fibonacci resistance ($154.50) and overbought KDJ readings may invite consolidation. A decisive close above $155 could trigger another leg toward $158, while failure to hold $147 support would invalidate the bullish structure. Given indicator alignment but resistance proximity, upside momentum appears likely to continue near-term with potential for limited technical consolidation first.