ARKUSDT Market Overview – 2025-09-25

• Price declined sharply from 0.4376 to 0.4160, forming multiple bearish patterns.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands contracted early in the session, followed by a sharp expansion.
• Volume surged during the 12:00–16:00 ET window, confirming bearish momentum.
• Turnover diverged with price during 04:00–08:00 ET, indicating potential distribution.

Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) opened at 0.4366 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.4377, a low of 0.4101, and closed at 0.4160 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 2,917,914.0 units, and notional turnover was $1,250,979.60 (assuming $0.4160 as average price for estimation). The pair experienced a sustained bearish move after a brief recovery in the early evening.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a sharp breakdown after 02:00 ET, with multiple bearish candlestick formations including a dark cloud cover and a bearish engulfing pattern. The price tested the 0.4200 and 0.4150 levels, both of which acted as key support clusters before breaking below 0.4150 in the midday hours. A notable doji appeared at 08:45 ET, hinting at indecision before a sharp sell-off resumed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearishly aligned, with the 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA for confirmation. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-day MAs were in a descending order, reinforcing the bearish trend. The price closed below all three daily MAs, indicating a strong likelihood of continued bearish bias unless a significant reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence, with the histogram narrowing as the price continued lower. The RSI reached an oversold level of 25 in the early afternoon hours, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the bearish momentum remains intact as the RSI failed to sustain above 30. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high at 0.4376 to the low at 0.4101 is at 0.4238, which could offer resistance on any near-term recovery.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 02:00 ET, following a period of contraction that lasted until 01:00 ET. Price remained below the 20-period Bollinger Band lower band for most of the session, indicating oversold conditions. The widening of the bands coincided with increased volume and suggests that a mean reversion may be imminent, especially if the 0.4150 level holds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 12:00–16:00 ET window, confirming the bearish breakout below 0.4150. Turnover was particularly elevated during the same period, suggesting aggressive distribution. However, volume decreased significantly after 08:00 ET, indicating potential exhaustion in the bearish move. The divergence between price and turnover between 04:00–08:00 ET suggests that buyers may be entering with a sense of caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels from the 0.4376 high to the 0.4101 low include 38.2% at 0.4261 and 61.8% at 0.4238. The price bounced from the 0.4150 level in the early morning but failed to hold above it. If the price retraces to the 0.4238 level, it could test whether buyers are willing to defend the area.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.4238) with confirmation from a bearish engulfing or dark cloud cover pattern. A stop loss could be placed just above the 0.4261 level, with a target at the 0.4150 support level and a trailing stop below key support levels. This approach would aim to capitalize on a continuation of the bearish trend, while limiting risk through clear technical triggers and stops.