ARKMUSDT Market Overview: 2025-10-30

• Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) traded in a narrow range before dropping sharply after 18:45 ET on 2025-10-29.
• A key support level at 0.342 appears to have held during a 6-hour pullback.
• RSI hit oversold levels, but price failed to rally decisively from that level.
• Volatility expanded dramatically after 18:45 ET, with a single candle accounting for 12% of total volume.
• Final candle closed near the 24-hour low, signaling a bearish bias heading into the next 24 hours.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.356 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.373 before closing at 0.342 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-30. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 19.6 million units, with a notional turnover of $6.69 million. The sharp sell-off from 0.368 to 0.342 between 18:45 and 04:30 ET defined a critical bearish phase.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a bearish continuation pattern as price broke below the 0.355 support level following a failed rally attempt at 0.373. A key support at 0.342 appears to be in play, having held during a steep decline. The candlestick pattern on 04:30 ET—a long bearish body—suggests further selling pressure may materialize in the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, with the price trading below both as of the final candle. On a daily basis, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs all appear to be in a descending order, reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been negative for most of the 24-hour period, with the signal line crossing below the histogram in the final hours. RSI is currently in oversold territory, but this has not triggered a reversal. A prolonged stay in oversold conditions could signal a deeper decline unless a strong bullish reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 18:45 ET, with price breaking well below the lower Bollinger band. Since then, price has remained within a narrow range, near the lower band. This suggests a continuation of bearish momentum rather than a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the 18:45–23:00 ET window, coinciding with the 0.368 to 0.342 drop. Notional turnover was particularly high during this period, indicating strong bearish conviction. Recent volume has declined, suggesting fading interest. A divergence between price and volume in the final hours could hint at weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent 15-minute swing (0.346 to 0.373), price has corrected to the 61.8% level (~0.352) and is now testing the 100% level (~0.340). If price breaks below 0.340, a deeper correction toward 0.335 (123.6% extension) could be in play.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish continuation pattern and the alignment of multiple technical indicators—particularly the breakdown below key moving averages and Bollinger bands—this suggests a potential opportunity for short bias strategies. A backtesting framework using candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) on ARKMUSDT and similar crypto pairs could help quantify risk-reward ratios. Testing the validity of such signals on a broader set of tickers—perhaps the top 20 largest stablecoin pairs—could provide valuable insight into their generalizability in a bearish market context.