ARKMUSDT Market Overview for 2025-09-26

• ARKMUSDT opened at $0.527 and fell to a 24-hour low of $0.506 before recovering to close near $0.517.
• A bearish breakdown occurred after midday ET, followed by a partial rebound into early evening.
• RSI reached oversold levels below 30, suggesting short-term buying potential.
• Volatility increased with a 15-minute Bollinger Band expansion, indicating market uncertainty.
• Volume spiked during the selloff but declined during the recovery, hinting at potential indecision.

ARKMUSDT opened at $0.527 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.517 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26 after hitting a low of $0.506. The 24-hour volume was approximately 17,662,626.5 with a total notional turnover of $9,229,743.98. Price action reflected bearish dominance during midday, followed by a moderate recovery in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a notable breakdown after a 15-minute candle on 2025-09-25 17:30 ET closed at $0.509, forming a bearish continuation pattern. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared later in the afternoon (2025-09-25 18:30 ET) as price recovered to $0.515. A key support level formed around $0.510–$0.512, holding multiple times throughout the session, suggesting a potential floor for short-term bounces. Resistance remains clustered near $0.520–$0.525, which will need to be cleared for a reversal in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for most of the session, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance during the afternoon rebound, limiting upward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 EMAs are aligned in a downtrend, reinforcing the possibility of further consolidation near key support zones before a potential test of the $0.500 psychological level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early selloff, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped to a 24-hour low of 29 at the $0.508 level, signaling oversold conditions and possibly a short-term rebound. However, divergence between price and RSI during the recovery phase suggests limited conviction in the upward move. Momentum indicators appear to indicate a possible retest of support before any meaningful reversal could occur.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with price dropping below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. This contraction may have been a result of increased selling pressure and liquidity exhaustion. The rebound into the evening brought price back into the band, but it remained near the lower boundary, indicating lingering bearish pressure. A breakout above the upper band would signal a shift in short-term sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, particularly in the 17:30 to 19:00 ET period, with peak 15-minute volume hitting 781,874.4 units. Turnover increased in line with price declines, but the recovery phase saw a drop in volume despite a modest price increase, hinting at weak follow-through buying. This divergence may suggest a potential continuation of bearish bias, unless volume picks up significantly on a confirmed break of $0.520.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.527 to $0.506, key levels include 61.8% at $0.514 and 38.2% at $0.519. Price has tested both levels, with the 61.8% level showing more resilience. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels derived from the last major bear leg could suggest a target at $0.505 as a possible next stop in the downside, though a rebound at $0.515–$0.518 may be likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on Fibonacci retracement levels and divergences in RSI and MACD could be considered for ARKMUSDT. A short entry could be triggered on a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.514) with confirmation from bearish MACD crossover and RSI divergence. A stop-loss could be placed above $0.519, and a profit target set at $0.509 or the 50% Fibonacci level. A long bias may be triggered on a retest of the 38.2% level with bullish RSI divergence and MACD flip above the signal line.