ARKMUSDT Market Overview for 2025-09-16

• Price rose from $0.593 to $0.602 over 24 hours, with volatility clustering in the final 6 hours.
• RSI shows moderate momentum, while volume increased in the last 6 hours.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before a breakout toward the upper band in the final 24 hours.
• A bullish flag pattern formed during consolidation, followed by a breakout above key resistance.
• No clear divergence between price and volume, suggesting trend continuation is likely.

The Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) pair opened at $0.593 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of $0.605 before closing at $0.602 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $0.584, with a total traded volume of 5,196,132.6 units and a notional turnover of $3,099,721.37.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bullish flag pattern forming between $0.593 and $0.602, with price consolidating around $0.595 before breaking higher. A key support appears to be at $0.593, which has been tested multiple times and held, while resistance at $0.602 was breached in the final hours. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00–19:15 ET, signaling a potential reversal in a downtrend. A small doji at 16:00 ET suggests indecision early in the session, followed by a strong upward reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line around $0.595, forming a golden cross that preceded the breakout. The 50-period line now sits at $0.597, while the 20-period line is at $0.600, both trending higher. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $0.588, with the 100-period at $0.585 and the 200-period at $0.580, indicating a longer-term bullish bias. Price remains above all three, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend is likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line at $0.0003 around 18:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram remains positive, indicating sustained buying pressure. RSI has moved from mid-50s to mid-60s, showing moderate strength without reaching overbought territory. A dip in RSI below 50 after a rally has been limited, suggesting strong buyer participation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened between $0.590 and $0.596 during the consolidation phase, followed by a breakout to the upper band, where the high reached $0.605. The bands are now expanding to the upside, with the middle band at $0.599 and the upper at $0.607. This expansion aligns with the MACD and RSI signals, reinforcing the likelihood of continued upward movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover both saw a significant increase after 18:00 ET, with the largest single 15-minute turnover of $111,880.28 at 18:15 ET. Notably, volume did not spike ahead of the breakout but followed the move, which is typical in trending markets. There is no clear divergence between price and volume, supporting a continuation of the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.584 to $0.605, key retracement levels at 61.8% ($0.597) and 78.6% ($0.593) were tested and either held or broken. The 100% extension is at $0.610, which appears to be the next target for the pair. Daily Fibonacci retracements from a prior low to recent high also show a 61.8% level at $0.595, which was tested and held before the breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when a bullish engulfing pattern forms after a consolidation phase, confirmed by a golden cross in the 20/50 moving averages and a positive MACD crossover. A stop-loss is placed below the nearest support level, with a target at the 100% Fibonacci extension of the swing. This setup appears to align with the recent price action, where a bullish engulfing pattern preceded a breakout and a golden cross was confirmed shortly after. A successful trade would require price to close above $0.605 without a pullback below $0.593, which has shown strong support so far.