Arkham/Tether Market Overview: Volatility and Oversold Conditions in a Weak Recovery

• Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) fell 6.6% in 24 hours, closing near intraday lows after a bearish reversal in early ET time.
• Key resistance at 0.356–0.358 stalled rebounds, with volume surging on breakdowns below 0.352.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 0.350, but momentum remained bearish with no clear reversal sign.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed before the drop, indicating low volatility ahead of a sharp correction.
• Turnover remained steady despite price declines, suggesting no significant panic selling.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.384 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.351 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22, with a 24-hour high of 0.388 and a low of 0.34. The price action featured a strong bearish reversal during the overnight session, with volume spiking to over 790k on the 22:45 ET candle as the price gapped lower. Total 24-hour volume reached 11,572,689.2 units, while notional turnover amounted to 3,373,691.8 USD, with the majority of the decline occurring before 04:00 ET.

On the 15-minute chart, price action formed several bearish engulfing patterns and a deep doji at 0.352, signaling indecision and a lack of immediate follow-through in buying. A critical support level appears to have formed at 0.350–0.352, where price has bounced multiple times over the past 12 hours. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both sloped downward, with the 50-period line sitting near 0.353. The daily MA200, however, remains above 0.356, suggesting the pair could test that level for a potential larger pivot point.

The RSI-14 line sank into oversold territory (below 30) near 0.350, but failed to produce a convincing rebound. MACD lines diverged, with the histogram narrowing as the bearish bias consolidated. Bollinger Bands were in a tight range prior to the breakdown, indicating low volatility, followed by a sharp expansion as the price dropped below the lower band. This suggests the market may remain range-bound or continue lower, but with increasing pressure to test key support levels.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.388 high to the 0.340 low highlight key levels: 0.356 (38.2%), 0.352 (50%), and 0.348 (61.8%). Price has tested 0.352 multiple times and could attempt a consolidation near this level before moving lower. The 0.356–0.358 area remains a critical psychological barrier, with volume historically spiking on attempts to break through.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-14 strategy—buying when RSI drops below 30 and selling when it rises above 70—has potential for ARKMUSDT, but requires accurate historical data to validate. Given that ARKM only listed on Binance in mid-2023, a full backtest should start from that date to avoid missing-data errors. Initial 24-hour observations suggest the RSI could signal oversold conditions near 0.350, but bearish momentum remains strong. If implemented, this strategy would likely have faced challenges during sharp declines like the current one, where a rebound may not follow immediately. For a longer sample period, a data-complete asset—such as Bitcoin or Ethereum—could be substituted.