Arkham/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price surged to 0.360 before retreating to 0.339.
• Momentum shifted bearish in the final 12 hours.
• Volume spiked mid-session, but turnover waned post-06:00 ET.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.335 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and peaked at 0.360 before closing at 0.342 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair traded between 0.331 and 0.360, with a 24-hour volume of 15,842,197.03 and turnover of 5,377.39 USD equivalent.

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period shows a strong intraday bullish impulse between 17:00 and 22:00 ET, driven by a series of higher highs and higher closes. However, this momentum reversed sharply after 22:00 ET, with multiple bearish patterns—particularly bearish hammers and engulfings—suggesting a shift in sentiment. The price fell into a consolidation phase during the overnight session, with key support levels forming around 0.340–0.342.

Structure & Formations

A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 06:30–06:45 ET (candle #26–27), with the candle closing at 0.338 after an open at 0.343 and high at 0.349. This signals potential bearish continuation pressure. Additionally, a morning doji emerged at 00:00–00:15 ET, followed by a sharp sell-off, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The price may test the 0.333 level next, which appears to have held as a minor support twice.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover around 04:00–05:00 ET, confirming a shift in trend. The 50SMA has since held above the 20SMA, indicating continued bearish dominance. On the daily chart (1D), the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are approaching a potential crossover, which could signal a broader bearish bias if the 200SMA is breached.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative after 06:00 ET, and the RSI dropped from overbought territory (80+) in the evening to a bearish reading of ~30 by mid-morning. This suggests exhaustion in the buying momentum and a likely continuation of the downward trend. The RSI may struggle to re-enter neutral territory in the near term without a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with a volatility contraction observed between 22:00–06:00 ET. This period was followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke below the lower band. The current price of 0.342 is trading just above the lower band, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the 17:00–19:00 ET session, supporting the bullish move up to 0.360. However, turnover began to decline after 06:00 ET, suggesting waning interest from large players. The divergence between volume and price during the afternoon suggests distribution by whales and could presage a deeper correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 17:00–22:00 ET bullish move (0.335 to 0.360), the price retested the 61.8% level (~0.348) before continuing lower. The 50% retracement (~0.347) and 38.2% (~0.354) levels were rejected. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish leg from 0.360 to 0.323 is at 0.343, where current price action is consolidating.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential profitability of short-side entries, a backtest for Bearish Engulfing patterns would be valuable using the ARKMUSDT pair. Assuming ARKMUSDT is the correct symbol on Binance, and using a 1D timeframe, short entries could be triggered when a valid bearish engulfing pattern is detected. A 5% stop-loss and 10% take-profit would then be placed to assess performance. By aligning this with the bearish signals observed in recent candle patterns and divergences, a strategic short approach could be validated.