Summary
• Price opened at $0.302 and closed at $0.290, down 3.97% in 24 hours.
• Volatility increased with a 15-minute high of $0.31 and low of $0.284.
• Turnover hit $62.4M with volume at 21.2 million units, showing increased activity.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near $0.302–0.303.
• Momentum appears to be slowing with RSI hovering near oversold levels.
Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at $0.302, hit a high of $0.31, and closed at $0.290 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 21.2 million with a turnover of ~$62.4M. Price action shows a bearish trend amid expanding volatility.
Structure & Formations
Price has formed a bearish engulfing pattern in the early hours of the session at $0.302–0.303, indicating a potential reversal. The key support levels to watch are $0.294 and $0.288, while resistance remains at $0.301 and $0.306. A doji formed near $0.299, signaling indecision among traders and potential consolidation.
Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the price has consistently traded below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming the short-term bearish bias. Longer-term moving averages (50/100/200 daily) also remain bearish, with price currently below all three, indicating a broader downtrend.
MACD & RSI
MACD remains bearish with both the line and signal line in negative territory. The histogram has been shrinking, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. RSI stands at 31, near oversold levels, but a bounce from here could be short-lived if buying interest fails to materialize.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening in the morning session. Price has been trading near the lower band since around $0.292, suggesting a test of key support. A break below $0.288 could trigger further downward movement toward $0.284.
Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during the early morning ET hours, coinciding with the bearish engulfing pattern. Turnover has increased in step with volume, confirming the bearish bias. However, a divergence appears in the afternoon as volume decreases while price remains stagnant, suggesting a potential pause in the trend.
Fibonacci Retracements
On the 15-minute chart, the price is currently at the 61.8% retracement level of the previous upward swing from $0.290 to $0.306. A break below this level could bring in $0.288 as the next target. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at $0.294 could act as a near-term support or consolidation area.
Backtest Hypothesis
Given the current price behavior, a backtest could consider a mean-reversion strategy using the RSI and Bollinger Bands. A long entry could be triggered when price hits the lower band with RSI below 30, followed by a stop-loss just below the next support level. Exit signals could be based on RSI crossing back above 50 or a breakout above the 20-period moving average. This setup aligns with the recent oversold condition and could help capture a potential rebound in the near term.
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