Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) Market Overview for October 4, 2025

• Price action shows a bearish bias with a 1.27% decline over the last 24 hours.
• RSI and MACD indicate weak momentum and potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility has contracted slightly, with price consolidating near key Fibonacci levels.
• A significant volume spike was observed mid-session, suggesting short-term interest.
• No strong reversal patterns formed, but key support at 0.53–0.535 appears intact.

Market Opening and Daily Summary

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at $0.552 on October 3, 2025 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.531 as of October 4 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached an intraday high of $0.571 and a low of $0.522 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 11,899,952.0 units, while notional turnover stood at approximately $6,478,232 (based on average price).

Structure & Formations

The price structure has shown a consistent bearish bias, with a series of lower highs and lower lows dominating the 15-minute chart. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.571 around 16:45 ET on October 3, followed by a hammer candle at $0.545 on October 4 at 01:00 ET, suggesting some short-covering or support testing. The most recent swing high of $0.571 and swing low of $0.522 define a key descending channel. A critical support zone has emerged between $0.530 and $0.535, as price appears to have bounced from this area multiple times.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) has moved below the 50-EMA, forming a bearish crossover. This suggests continued bearish momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-EMA lines are in a descending order, confirming the longer-term bearish bias. Price is trading well below all major EMAs, indicating bearish alignment across timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative with a bearish histogram, reinforcing the short-term bearish momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory, currently around 29, which typically signals a potential short-term rebound or consolidation phase. However, without a strong reversal pattern or volume confirmation, this could be a false signal. The divergence between price and RSI is moderate, suggesting caution.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remains relatively compressed, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands showing a slight contraction. Price is currently trading near the lower band at $0.530, which may act as a near-term support. If the price breaks below this level, it could signal a continuation of the bearish trend with the next target around $0.520.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 191,706 units around 04:00 ET on October 4, coinciding with a retest of the $0.530 support level. This suggests active participation and potential accumulation or short-term panic selling. The overall volume pattern remains bearish with no significant bull confirmation in the last 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $0.571 to $0.522, the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.546, which has acted as a resistance. The 38.2% retracement is at $0.555, a level that has held price in check multiple times. Price is now consolidating near the 23.6% retracement at $0.559, suggesting a potential bounce area if bullish momentum returns.

Forward Outlook and Risk Consideration

In the next 24 hours, a break below $0.530 could trigger further bearish pressure and target $0.520 as a key psychological level. A rebound above $0.545 may attract short-covering buyers but would need volume confirmation to be meaningful. Investors should monitor the 50-EMA and $0.535 as critical levels for trend clarity.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a bearish breakout trigger when price closes below a 50-period moving average on high volume, confirmed by RSI entering oversold territory. A stop-loss could be placed above the 20-period EMA or the most recent swing high, while the take-profit target aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This strategy would aim to capitalize on bearish continuation patterns seen in the recent structure and aligns with the observed price action and volume dynamics over the past 24 hours. Given the low RSI and bearish MACD, the setup could be tested for consistency in similar market conditions over the past 30 days.