Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-14

• Price action shows a bearish bias, with ARKMUSDT closing near session lows after a sharp drop in afternoon ET.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 15-minute chart, with strong volume spikes confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought conditions in the early session, followed by bearish divergence later in the day.
• A notable breakdown below key support at 0.645 suggests potential for further downside in the near term.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.654 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.668, and closed at 0.625 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, settling near session lows. Total 24-hour volume was 17,290,795 USDT, with notional turnover of approximately 10,997,365 USDT, indicating strong trading activity amid bearish price action.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a bearish bias, with price failing to hold above key resistance at 0.655. A breakdown below 0.645 marked a significant turning point, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a deep-bodied candle at 0.64. A doji formed near 0.648, suggesting indecision and possible exhaustion in the short-term rally attempt. The session closed with a long lower wick and a bearish close, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 and 50-period SMAs, suggesting downward momentum. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, price is below the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, confirming a longer-term bearish bias and reinforcing the breakdown from key support levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the afternoon with a clear signal line cross and negative histogram, aligning with the price drop. RSI peaked at overbought levels in the early morning, then collapsed below 50 before hitting bearish territory. A bearish divergence appeared between the RSI and price as the latter fell sharply while RSI showed a weaker bearish move, signaling potential exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the afternoon, with the Bollinger Bands widening and price breaking below the lower band at 0.645. This confirmed the breakout and suggested an aggressive short-term bearish move. Price remained near the lower band for most of the closing hours, indicating weak support and potential for further downside in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown below 0.645 and again during the afternoon ET sell-off, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover rose in tandem with these price declines, indicating that the selling pressure was well-backed by liquidity. A divergence between volume and price was not observed, as both metrics aligned during the bearish phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from 0.668 to 0.625, the 61.8% level sits near 0.638, which acted as a minor resistance before the price fell below 0.635. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the broader move appears near 0.632, which was briefly tested during the late afternoon consolidation. A breakdown below 0.625 could target the 0.619 level next, with the 38.2% retest at 0.645 now acting as a pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and technical confirmation from moving averages, RSI, and volume, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a close below the 0.645 support level with a stop above 0.652 (the high of the 19:30 candle) and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.619. This approach leverages confirmed bearish divergence and volume confirmation to time entries with strong risk-reward parameters. A trailing stop could be added after the 0.632 retest to lock in gains while staying attuned to any bullish reversal signals.