Ark/Tether USDt Market Overview – 2025-09-05

• Ark/Tether USDt rose 0.81% over 24 hours, closing at 0.4323 from 0.4250.
• Key bullish momentum emerged after 09:00 ET, with a 3.3% rally to daily high.
• Volume spiked sharply during the upmove, confirming strength in the rally.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory, hinting at potential pullback risk.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating rising volatility and potential continuation or reversal.

The Ark/Tether USDt pair (ARKUSDT) opened at 0.4250 on 2025-09-04 and closed at 0.4323 on 2025-09-05, reaching a high of 0.4328 and a low of 0.4158. Total 24-hour volume was 415,530.0 and notional turnover amounted to 173,215.20 USD (assuming 100x leverage). The price action reflects a strong bullish reversal after early selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a classic bullish reversal formation, particularly around 06:15–07:45 ET, with a series of higher lows and a bullish engulfing pattern forming after a sharp selloff. A key support level formed around 0.4250, where the price found a floor three times. A strong resistance level emerged at 0.4328, the 24-hour high, which has yet to be decisively broken.

Key Candlestick Patterns

• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 07:15 ET, confirming a short-covering rally.
• A doji at 05:45 ET indicated indecision, followed by a decisive move higher.
• A higher high with a lower low structure from 06:45–07:30 ET confirmed a shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (20SMA and 50SMA) crossed above the price after 06:45 ET, indicating a potential trend reversal. The 50SMA was previously acting as a dynamic support level, and the price crossed above it to confirm a bullish bias.

The 50/100/200 daily MA structure showed the price currently above all three lines, indicating a strong short- to medium-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive after 07:00 ET, forming a bullish divergence with a low in the histogram. This confirmed a potential continuation of the upswing. The RSI crossed into overbought territory (above 70) during the final hours of the day, which could signal a near-term correction or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, suggesting heightened volatility. The price closed near the upper band, indicating strong momentum but also raising the possibility of a near-term pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bullish reversal phase, particularly between 06:45–07:45 ET, where over 90,000 units changed hands. This confirmed the strength of the bullish momentum. Turnover also increased in line with price, indicating solid buying interest.

A divergence between volume and price was observed during the 05:00–06:00 ET period, when the price declined while volume remained low. This suggested weak bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent low of 0.4158 and high of 0.4281 form a key swing range. The price closed above the 61.8% retracement level at 0.4277, indicating strong bullish bias. On the daily chart, the recent low at 0.4244 and high at 0.4328 define a critical Fibonacci structure, with the 38.2% retracement at 0.4295 acting as an immediate support and the 61.8% at 0.4303 as a potential resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed structure and momentum, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on a bullish breakout system that triggers long entries when price closes above a key Fibonacci level and the 50SMA with rising volume. This could be combined with a trailing stop-loss at the most recent swing low to manage risk during volatile swings. The MACD histogram divergence could serve as a confirmation filter, while the RSI reaching overbought territory could act as a cautionary signal for possible profit-taking or position adjustments. A 15-minute time frame is recommended for such a strategy, with a daily time horizon for trend confirmation.