Ark/Tether Market Overview – November 14, 2025

• Price dipped below 0.3010 support and tested 0.2980 before partial recovery
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, hinting at potential near-term bounce
• Volume surged during the early morning ET decline but faded in recent consolidation
• Bollinger Bands show a moderate contraction as volatility stabilizes
• 20SMA remains above price, indicating bearish short-term bias

ARK/Tether (ARKUSDT) opened at $0.3074 on November 13, 12:00 ET, and traded as high as $0.3086 before falling to a low of $0.2858. The price closed at $0.3009 on November 14, 12:00 ET, with total volume of ~684,000 and turnover of ~$208,000 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action for Ark/Tether reveals a bearish bias with a key support level forming around 0.2980-0.2990, tested and retested multiple times over the past 24 hours. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.3020-0.3030 on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend. A morning session breakdown from 0.3010 support confirmed bearish sentiment. Resistance appears clustered between 0.3030 and 0.3050, where the price showed multiple failed attempts to reclaim.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trend downward, confirming the bearish momentum. The 20SMA sits slightly above price at around 0.3015, offering limited resistance. On the daily chart, the 50DMA remains above the 200DMA, suggesting medium-term bearishness.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines have shown a bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram has been consistently negative, reinforcing the downtrend. RSI is currently at ~30, indicating oversold conditions, which may encourage short-term buying. However, RSI has spent a prolonged time in oversold territory, suggesting a weak and possibly bear-trapping bounce may occur.

Bollinger Bands

Price action shows a moderate contraction within Bollinger Bands as of the late morning hours, indicating potential consolidation before a breakout. The 20-period upper band is near $0.3070, while the lower band currently sits at around $0.2950. Price has been trading within the band for most of the period, with a few excursions during early morning volatility.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume was recorded during the early morning ET selloff (04:45–05:00), where price broke below 0.2980 with high notional turnover. Volume has since reduced, indicating diminishing conviction in the bearish move. Divergence between the price and volume may suggest a potential reversal, though the trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 0.3086 to the low of 0.2858 show 38.2% at ~0.2998 and 61.8% at ~0.2919. The 38.2% retracement has been a recent point of resistance and support, with price bouncing off it multiple times. The 61.8% level remains a critical support zone for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve using the 14-day RSI to identify overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) conditions in ARKUSDT and trigger buy/sell signals accordingly. However, given the current limitations in retrieving RSI data for the specified ETF, the same approach could be adapted to ARKUSDT by using the available OHLCV data to compute RSI values in real time. A 20-period EMA crossover could serve as an additional confirmation filter. Given the current RSI at 30, a buy signal might be triggered, but confirmation from the 20SMA and volume would be essential to avoid false signals in a consolidating market.