Ark/Tether Market Overview: Bearish Momentum and Oversold Conditions on the 15-Minute Chart

• Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) declined 5.1% over the past 24 hours, ending near key support at $0.423.
• Volatility expanded midday with a sharp drop to $0.42, signaling bearish momentum.
• High turnover occurred during the 14:45–15:00 ET window as price fell below $0.425.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near $0.43–0.435, reinforcing downside bias.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, but divergence with price suggests caution in short-term bounces.

Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) opened at $0.4364 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.4426 before closing at $0.4298 at the same time on October 9. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 588,039.0 with a notional turnover of $245,083.94, reflecting heightened activity during the afternoon slump.

The 15-minute chart shows a distinct bearish trend, with price failing to hold above the 20-period moving average for much of the session. A bearish engulfing pattern was evident between 14:00–15:00 ET, as the pair closed below the prior candle’s body after a sharp drop. This pattern, combined with a 50-period moving average acting as dynamic resistance, suggests that the near-term bias remains bearish. Additionally, price action has moved closer to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the prior rally, a key zone for potential reversals.

MACD remains bearish with the line dipping into negative territory and the histogram showing widening bearish momentum. RSI dipped into the oversold zone around 14:45–15:00 ET as price fell sharply, but the divergence between price and RSI suggests that a bounce may be short-lived. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly as volatility increased, with price currently trading near the lower band, indicating potential for a pullback or consolidation.

Volume and turnover spiked during the afternoon sell-off, particularly between 14:45–15:15 ET, as price moved below $0.425. This was not accompanied by a corresponding bullish RSI response, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation. The drop below $0.423, a critical support level, appears to confirm a breakdown in buyer sentiment.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish bias, with key support levels at $0.420 and $0.415 offering possible targets for the next 24 hours. A bounce above $0.435 may trigger short-term buying, but a retest of the breakdown level near $0.423 is likely. Investors should watch for a confirmation candle above $0.435 to suggest a potential reversal, but the broader trend remains negative.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a short position upon a bearish engulfing pattern formation near a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, with a stop-loss placed just above the pattern’s high and a target of 3–5% below the entry price. This aligns well with the bearish engulfing pattern seen on the 15-minute chart near $0.435, which formed as price broke below the 61.8% retracement of the earlier rally. The RSI and MACD divergence further supports the likelihood of a continuation to the downside.