Ark/Tether Market Overview

• Ark/Tether traded in a bearish bias, with price falling below key moving averages.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near $0.436, signaling potential further downside.
• Volatility expanded during the early hours, with a sharp pullback after a mid-day rally.
• RSI remained in oversold territory for several hours, indicating a lack of bullish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion after a period of consolidation, suggesting increased trading activity.

ARK/Tether (ARKUSDT) opened at $0.4348 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.4414, a low of $0.4264, and closed at $0.4327 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. The pair experienced a total volume of 491,013 and a notional turnover of $211,743.65 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $0.436 during the early morning, which marked a key turning point as buyers lost control and the price broke below key intraday support levels. A morning rally from $0.4305 to $0.436 was quickly retraced, forming a bearish continuation pattern. A doji appeared near $0.4275 in the early hours of the morning, suggesting indecision, which was soon followed by a decisive breakdown.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were below the price for the majority of the session, reinforcing a bearish bias. The daily chart showed the 50-period moving average at $0.4350, slightly above the 100-period at $0.4335 and the 200-period at $0.4325, suggesting a potential support cluster forming between $0.4325 and $0.4335 for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below its signal line in the early morning, confirming the bearish momentum shift. RSI remained in oversold territory for much of the session, ranging between 25 and 35, indicating a lack of buying pressure. A temporary overbought condition occurred around $0.436 in the late afternoon, but this failed to hold, suggesting a lack of conviction from bullish participants.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction between 03:00 and 06:00 ET before expanding as the price dropped sharply. Price remained mostly below the lower band during the evening and into the next morning, which is a sign of heightened bearish volatility and potential continuation of the downward trend. A retest of the upper band at $0.436 is expected if a rebound occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late evening (22:00–02:00 ET), coinciding with the sharp sell-off from $0.436 to $0.4264. Notional turnover also increased during this period, aligning with price action, which suggests a confirmed bearish shift. A divergence between volume and price was observed during the morning consolidation phase, indicating waning selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the intraday $0.4264–$0.4414 swing, key levels at 61.8% ($0.4334) and 78.6% ($0.4314) appeared to hold during the early morning sell-off. The 38.2% retracement at $0.436 was briefly tested but failed to hold, suggesting the market is more bearish than neutral. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the previous week’s move aligns with $0.4327, which coincided with the 24-hour close.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described is a momentum-based long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, with a stop below the engulfing pattern’s low and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Given the bearish context of ARKUSDT, a reverse strategy—shorting on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation—would be more applicable here. A short entry at $0.436 with a stop above $0.437 and a target at $0.4325 aligns with the recent price action. If this pattern is confirmed with strong volume, the strategy could yield a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, particularly if the 20-period moving average holds as dynamic resistance.