Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) Market Overview - 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• Price tested resistance at 0.3140 before consolidating near 0.3080–0.3120.
• Volatility expanded during bullish breakout attempts, with volume peaking at 177,100.
• RSI suggested overbought conditions earlier, but a pullback indicates bearish momentum.

ARKUSDT opened at 0.3048 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and traded to a high of 0.3138 and a low of 0.3020, closing at 0.3040 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1,495,825 and notional turnover was $458,323.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart for Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) showed a distinct bearish reversal structure, with price forming a broad overhead peak near 0.3138 before retreating. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 2025-11-07 22:15–22:30 ET, confirming bearish sentiment. Support appears to congregate near 0.3060–0.3075, with resistance around 0.3105–0.3125.

Moving Averages

Shorter-term 15-minute 20- and 50-period SMAs showed a flattening after a brief bullish crossover in the evening. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA at 2025-11-08 00:45 ET, signaling bearish momentum. Longer-term daily 50/200 SMA suggest a neutral bias as the 50SMA is approaching convergence with the 200SMA from below.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and crossed below its signal line in the early hours of 2025-11-08, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 50 and approached oversold territory, reaching a low of 37.5 at 05:45 ET. However, the decline did not trigger a strong rebound, suggesting bearish exhaustion may still be in place.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded through the night as the bands widened from 0.3085–0.3105 to 0.3020–0.3105. Price spent most of the session near the lower band, indicating a weak near-term bias. A contraction in band width is expected as the pair consolidates around 0.3040–0.3075.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover increased significantly between 18:00–20:30 ET, with volume spiking at 2025-11-07 18:15 ET and 19:15 ET as price pushed above 0.3115. However, this was followed by a large-volume rejection at 0.3138. A divergence between rising volume and falling price suggests increased bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent 0.3020–0.3138 swing sits at 0.3073, which has held as a key support cluster. The 38.2% retracement at 0.3099 may now act as a resistance if price attempts to rally. Daily chart retracement levels suggest a broader consolidation phase between 0.3010 and 0.3150.

Backtest Hypothesis

To run this back-test precisely, I need to pin down a few trading-rule details that weren’t fully specified:1. Which stock(s) or ETF(s) would you like to test? • For example: a broad index tracker such as SPY, or one or more individual tickers (e.g., AAPL, MSFT, etc.). 2. RSI settings • Look-back period: The default is 14 trading days – is that acceptable? • “Overbought” threshold: The standard level is RSI > 70 – keep this, or would you like a different value?3. Trade execution price • Enter at the next day’s open after the signal, or at the same day’s close? (Default in many studies is next-day open.)4. Any exit rule besides the 3 % stop-loss? • E.g., time-based exit (max holding days) or profit target? • If none, we’ll let the stop-loss be the sole exit and otherwise hold until a new overbought signal? (Please clarify.)Let me know your preferences, and I’ll proceed with the data retrieval and back-test.