Aris Mining's Segovia Mill Expansion: A Catalyst for 500k Ounce Gold Production and Investor Returns

Aris Mining Corporation's June 2025 completion of its Segovia mill expansion marks a pivotal milestone in its journey to become a mid-tier gold producer. By increasing processing capacity by 50%, from 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes per day (tpd), the project has been executed on budget and schedule, underscoring the company's operational discipline. This achievement positions Segovia as the linchpin of Aris's strategy to reach over 500,000 ounces of annual gold production by 2026, with immediate cash flow benefits and a clear path to leverage rising gold prices. For investors seeking exposure to Latin American gold assets with near-term growth visibility, Aris Mining now emerges as a compelling buy.

On-Time, On-Budget Execution: A Signal of Operational Excellence

The Segovia mill expansion's flawless execution—completed in June 2025 without delays or cost overruns—sets a high bar for Aris's operational capabilities. The project's integration into existing infrastructure (crushing, flotation, leaching, and tailings circuits) maximized capital efficiency, avoiding the need for standalone facilities. This approach not only reduced upfront costs but also ensured seamless scalability. The company's Q1 2025 financials highlight this discipline: $43 million was allocated to growth initiatives, including Segovia, while strong cash flow ($40 million after sustaining capital and taxes) funded the majority of investments.

Production Ramp-Up: From 210k to 500k Ounces

The mill's expanded capacity is already driving production growth. In 2025, Segovia's output is projected to rise to 210,000–250,000 ounces, a 28% increase over 2024's 187,583 ounces. By 2026, the mine aims to hit 300,000 ounces annually as underground development progresses and mill feed purchases from contract miners increase. Combined with the Marmato Complex, Aris is on track to surpass 500,000 ounces annually, a target achievable by 2026 if the Marmato Bulk Mining Zone ramps up as planned in late 2026.

Financial Strength: Cash Flow, Leverage, and Growth Funding

The Segovia expansion's completion coincides with Aris's robust financial health. A $240 million cash balance and a net leverage ratio of 1.2x (down from 1.7x in 2024) provide ample flexibility for future projects. The company also benefited from $19.4 million in warrant proceeds in early 2025, with potential for an additional $96 million if remaining warrants are exercised before their July 2025 expiry. This liquidity supports ongoing initiatives, including the Soto Norte Pre-Feasibility Study and the Toroparu Project's Preliminary Economic Assessment—both expected to report results by Q3 2025.

Strategic Positioning: Latin American Gold Growth Hub

Beyond Segovia, Aris is positioning itself as a leader in Latin American gold exploration and development. The Soto Norte joint venture and Guyana's Toroparu gold/copper project add high-potential assets to its portfolio. These projects, if successful, could further diversify revenue streams and extend production profiles. Meanwhile, the company's focus on cost discipline—evident in its $66.6 million adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025—reduces execution risks and enhances profitability.

Investment Thesis: Why Aris Mining is a Buy

1. Near-Term Production Catalysts: The Segovia mill's ramp-up in H2 2025 and the Marmato Bulk Mining Zone's 2026 start provide clear growth milestones.
2. Leverage to Gold Prices: Higher production volumes amplify revenue exposure to rising gold prices, which are supported by geopolitical risks and central bank demand.
3. De-Risked Balance Sheet: Strong cash flow and low leverage reduce financial vulnerability, even if gold prices moderate.
4. Undervalued Valuation: At current stock prices, Aris trades at a discount to peers, offering upside as production targets are met.

Risks to Consider

While Aris's execution to date is commendable, risks remain. Operational hiccups in the new mill's integration, delays in underground development at Segovia, or unfavorable results from Soto Norte/Toroparu could pressure growth timelines. Investors should monitor Q3 2025 updates on these projects and track production metrics in late 2025.

Conclusion

The Segovia mill expansion is more than a capacity upgrade—it's a validation of Aris Mining's ability to execute on growth. With a clear path to 500,000 ounces annually, robust financials, and a pipeline of high-potential projects, the company is primed to deliver outsized returns for investors. For those seeking leveraged exposure to Latin American gold assets with near-term visibility, Aris Mining's stock represents an attractive entry point ahead of its 2026 production targets.

Recommendation: Buy. Monitor for Q3 project updates and H2 production results.