Argo Blockchain Surges 30%: Can This Bullish Breakout Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• Argo Blockchain (ARBK) surges 29.9% to $0.5196, hitting an intraday high of $0.6462
• Turnover skyrockets to 58.5 million shares, with a 92.06% turnover rate
• MACD histogram shows bullish divergence, while RSI nears neutral territory
• Options market sees 2233 contracts traded in ARBK20250815C0.5 call option.

Argo Blockchain has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, surging nearly 30% on heavy volume as traders capitalize on a potential breakout. With the stock trading above its 200-day average and options volatility spiking to 250%, the market is betting on a reversal in the long-term range-bound pattern. This article deciphers the technical and market dynamics behind the move, and identifies high-conviction options plays for traders.

Options Volatility and MACD Divergence Fuel Short-Term Optimism
The 29.9% intraday jump in ARBK stems from a confluence of technical triggers and options activity. The stock’s price has pierced above its 200-day moving average (0.6168), breaking through a key psychological barrier after years of consolidation. Simultaneously, the MACD histogram shows a rare positive divergence (0.0096) against a negative MACD line (-0.0128), signaling short-term bullish momentum. Options data reinforces this: the ARBK20250815C0.5 call option has traded 2233 contracts at a 251.16% implied volatility ratio, reflecting aggressive positioning for a near-term upside move. This surge appears driven by algorithmic trading reacting to the technical breakout rather than fundamental news.

High-Volatility Options and ETF Positioning for a Breakout Play
• 200-day average: 0.6168 (above); RSI: 53.09 (neutral); MACD: -0.0128 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 0.5196 exceeds upper band of 0.4277, indicating overextension
• Support/Resistance: 30D range (0.3614–0.3661) is far below current price; 200D range (0.3981–0.4216) also distant

Traders should focus on key levels: 0.4277 (Bollinger upper band), 0.6168 (200D MA), and 0.3191 (middle Bollinger band). A close above 0.6168 could confirm a shift from ranging to trending. The ARBK20250815C0.5 call option (strike 0.5, expiration 2025-08-15) is a top pick: 251.16% implied volatility, 3.45% leverage ratio, and 65.77% delta suggest strong sensitivity to price moves. With a 5% upside projection to $0.5456, the payoff would be $0.0456 per share. The ARBK20251017C0.5 call option (strike 0.5, expiration 2025-10-17) offers lower time decay (-0.001025) and higher gamma (0.6897), ideal for a mid-term hold. Aggressive bulls should target a breakout above 0.6168 with ARBK20250815C0.5; conservative traders may prefer the October contract for reduced theta drag.

Backtest Argo Blockchain Stock Performance
The backtest of ARBK's performance after a 30% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 38.93%, the 10-day win rate drops to 48.02% and the 30-day win rate falls further to 43.12%. This suggests that although ARBK often rebounds in the short term, its longer-term performance is more variable. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.74% over 10 days, indicating that while there is potential for gains, they are not consistently high.

Breakout or False Dawn? Watch 0.6168 and 0.4277 for Clarity
The sustainability of ARBK’s 30% rally hinges on two critical levels: a close above 0.6168 (200D MA) would validate a bullish reversal, while a retest of the Bollinger upper band at 0.4277 could trigger profit-taking. Options data suggests strong conviction in the near-term upside, but traders must monitor the sector leader MARA (-0.8773% intraday) for cross-sector caution. If the 0.6168 level holds, ARBK20250815C0.5 offers a high-leverage entry; however, a breakdown below 0.3191 (middle Bollinger band) would signal a return to range-trading. Position sizing should reflect the stock’s high volatility and low liquidity relative to sector peers.