Argentina's Record Trade Surplus: A Milei Presidency Milestone

Argentina has marked a significant economic milestone under the presidency of libertarian leader Javier Milei, with the country recording a record trade surplus of nearly $19 billion in his first year in office. This remarkable achievement is a testament to Milei's commitment to fiscal discipline and structural reforms, as well as the resilience of the Argentine economy in the face of global headwinds.

The trade surplus, which reached $18.2 billion in November 2024, is a stark contrast to the $7.94 billion deficit recorded in the first 11 months of 2023. This turnaround is a result of a combination of factors, including increased exports, decreased imports, and a widening energy trade surplus.



Exports from Argentina have surged, driven by increased sales of agricultural products and raw materials, manufactured products, primary goods, and fuels and energy. This surge can be attributed to Milei's policies aimed at boosting exports, such as easing currency controls and improving weather conditions for agricultural production. In October 2024, exports from Argentina totaled $7,016 million, a 30% increase from the same period the previous year.

Meanwhile, imports have grown at a slower pace, driven by increased shipments of intermediate goods, capital goods, accessories for capital goods, and consumer goods. The slower growth in imports can be attributed to Milei's austerity measures, which included slashing energy and transportation subsidies, laying off government workers, and freezing public infrastructure projects. In October 2024, imports rose to $6,128 million, a 4.9% increase from the same period the previous year.



The energy trade surplus has also played a significant role in Argentina's record trade surplus. In November 2024, the rolling 12-month balance reached $5.2 billion, up from a surplus of $5.0 billion in the previous month and only $0.1 billion in 2023. This widening energy trade surplus is due to a significant decrease in energy imports and an increase in oil exports.



Analysts polled by Reuters forecast the year-end trade surplus between $18 billion and $19 billion for 2024, blowing past the previous record of $16.89 billion set in 2009. The December monthly data was estimated to be a $921 million surplus, according to the median of the Reuters poll.

Argentina's record trade surplus under Milei's presidency is a testament to the country's economic resilience and the effectiveness of his policies. However, it is essential to note that these changes have also led to increased poverty and inequality, as mentioned in the materials provided. As Argentina continues to navigate the challenges of a volatile global economy, the government must remain committed to fiscal discipline and structural reforms to maintain the country's trade surplus and promote sustainable economic growth.