Argentina’s Copper Renaissance: Milei’s Policies and RIGI as a Catalyst for Mining Megaprojects

Argentina’s mining sector is undergoing a seismic transformation under President Javier Milei’s administration, driven by the Large Investment Incentives Regime (RIGI) and a strategic pivot toward copper and lithium. With the country’s copper reserves estimated at 116 million tonnes and proven reserves of 17.1 million tonnes [1], Argentina is positioning itself to capitalize on the global energy transition’s insatiable demand for copper. The government’s bold reforms, however, come with significant risks, including environmental concerns and the need to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks. This analysis evaluates how Milei’s policies and RIGI could catalyze a $47 billion copper boom by 2040, while addressing the challenges that may hinder its realization.

RIGI: A Game-Changer for Mining Investment

The RIGI regime, introduced in 2024, is the cornerstone of Argentina’s economic strategy to attract foreign capital. By offering tax stability for 30 years, import/export exemptions, and favorable foreign exchange conditions, the regime targets projects with a minimum investment of $200 million in mining, oil, and gas [1]. For copper projects, this includes guaranteed regulatory stability and access to international arbitration mechanisms, reducing the risks for multinational corporations.

The impact is already evident: applications for RIGI-qualified projects have surpassed $30 billion, with $16 billion allocated to copper-specific initiatives [2]. Major players like BHP, Glencore, and Rio Tinto are advancing projects such as the Vicuña joint venture (BHP and Lundin) and Glencore’s El Pachón and MARA operations, which are expected to start production by the end of the decade [2]. These projects could position Argentina among the world’s top copper producers by 2030.

The $47 Billion Opportunity: Projections and Drivers

According to a report by the CRU Group, Argentina’s copper pipeline could generate a cumulative economic impact of approximately $47 billion by 2040 [2]. This figure is comparable to the $44 billion IMF bailout loan the country received in recent years, underscoring the transformative potential of the mining sector. The projected economic contribution hinges on several factors:

1. Resource Endowments: Argentina’s San Juan and Salta provinces hold vast copper deposits, with San Juan dubbed the “Vaca Muerta of copper” due to its untapped potential [3].
2. Global Demand: The global push for electrification and renewable energy infrastructure is driving structural demand for copper, with South America becoming a focal point for investment [4].
3. Tax Incentives: Under RIGI, the average effective tax rate for copper projects is expected to drop to 38%, compared to 47% without the regime, enhancing competitiveness [2].

However, these projections depend on resolving infrastructure challenges. Remote locations, extreme altitudes, and the lack of transportation networks, power lines, and water management systems have historically hindered progress [3]. To address this, provinces like San Juan have introduced royalty-based compensation programs, allowing mining companies to recover infrastructure costs through future royalty payments [3]. Projects like Vicuña are leveraging these models to fund a 220-kilometer road and high-voltage transmission lines [2].

Global Positioning and Strategic Alliances

Argentina’s strategic position within the “Lithium Triangle” (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile) further amplifies its appeal. The country holds 20% of global lithium resources and is integrating copper and lithium projects with renewable energy infrastructure, such as solar and wind farms [6]. This synergy aligns with the OECD’s assessment that Argentina is “reaping new opportunities from the global energy transition” [6].

Yet, the country faces stiff competition from traditional copper hubs like Chile and Peru. To differentiate itself, Argentina is emphasizing its political stability under Milei’s administration and the RIGI regime’s investor-friendly framework. As of Q3 2025, mining exports are projected to exceed $5 billion by 2025, with copper anticipated to become a key pillar as lithium prices stabilize [5].

Risks and Criticisms

While the economic potential is substantial, the RIGI regime has drawn criticism for deepening Argentina’s extractivist model. Critics argue that the incentives prioritize foreign capital over local development and environmental sustainability [1]. For instance, the Los Azules project by McEwen Mining aims to be carbon-neutral by 2038 [4], but such initiatives remain exceptions rather than the norm.

Additionally, infrastructure bottlenecks persist. The federal government’s austerity measures limit public funding, forcing reliance on private investment and provincial programs. Delays in projects like Aldebaran Resources’ Altar project—postponed to Q3 2025 due to metallurgical testing—highlight the complexity of scaling operations [5].

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Bet on Copper

Argentina’s copper renaissance is a high-stakes gamble with the potential to reshape its economy. The RIGI regime has already attracted $30 billion in applications, and the CRU Group’s $47 billion projection by 2040 is ambitious but achievable if infrastructure challenges are met. However, the success of this strategy depends on balancing investor incentives with environmental stewardship and social equity.

For investors, Argentina’s mining sector offers a compelling mix of resource potential, policy support, and global demand. Yet, the risks—ranging from infrastructure gaps to geopolitical volatility—demand careful due diligence. As the world races to secure critical minerals for the energy transition, Argentina’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine whether its copper boom becomes a reality or remains a promise.

Source:
[1] Extractivism and Corporate Privileges in the Milei Era [https://www.tni.org/en/article/extractivism-and-corporate-privileges-in-the-milei-era]
[2] Copper mining: A ~$47 billion opportunity for the Argentinian economy [https://www.crugroup.com/en/communities/thought-leadership/2025/copper-mining-a-47-billion-opportunity-for-the-argentinian-economy/]
[3] Argentina's Copper Infrastructure Challenges & Solutions [https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/argentina-global-copper-market-2025/]
[4] Argentina's copper dreams need infrastructure - but who will build it? [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/argentinas-copper-dreams-need-infrastructure-who-will-build-it-2025-08-08/]
[5] Argentina's mining exports will top $5 billion by 2025 despite lithium struggles: industry body claims [https://energynews.oedigital.com/mineral-resources/2025/07/17/argentinas-mining-exports-will-top-5-billion-by-2025-despite-lithium-struggles-industry-body-claims]
[6] OECD Economic Surveys: Argentina 2025: Reaping new opportunities from the global energy transition [https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-surveys-argentina-2025_27dd6e27-en/full-report/reaping-new-opportunities-from-the-global-energy-transition_412c8000.html]