Argan (AGX) Surges 13.8% on Major Texas Power Plant Contract and Institutional Buying – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Argan (AGX) surges 13.8% intraday, hitting $384.35, driven by a $1.35B Texas EPC contract win and a 33% dividend hike.
• Institutional investors like Creative Planning boost stakes by 12.6%, while insiders sell 106,795 shares valued at $29.4M.
• Analysts upgrade AGX to 'Buy' with $397 price targets, citing AI data center power demand and clean energy tailwinds.

Argan’s 13.8% intraday rally has electrified the engineering & construction sector, fueled by a landmark Texas power plant project and a surge in institutional buying. The stock’s 52-week high of $399.30 looms as a psychological barrier, while insiders’ recent large-scale sales add intrigue. With a 40.45 P/E ratio and a 0.6% yield, AGX’s valuation sits at a crossroads between growth optimism and earnings skepticism.

Major Texas Power Plant Contract Ignites AGX's 13.8% Surge
Argan’s meteoric rise stems from a $1.35B EPC contract for a 1,350 MW combined-cycle power plant in Texas, announced by Gemma Power Systems. This project, coupled with a 33% dividend increase to $0.50/share, has repositioned AGX as a clean energy infrastructure leader. Institutional investors, including Creative Planning and Meritage Portfolio Management, added 12.6% to their stakes in Q2, signaling confidence in the company’s AI-driven data center power expansion. However, insider sales of 106,795 shares over 90 days highlight divergent views on AGX’s near-term valuation.

Engineering & Construction Sector Volatility as AGX Defies Peers
While AGX’s 13.8% surge outpaces the sector, peers like KBR (KBR) and ROAD are underperforming. KBR, the sector leader, fell 1.43% intraday, reflecting broader engineering firm jitters amid rising material costs. Conversely, AGX’s focus on AI-powered data center power and Texas infrastructure positions it uniquely. The sector’s 40.45 P/E ratio, compared to AGX’s 45.58 P/E, underscores its premium valuation as a clean energy innovator.

Options and ETF Strategy: AGX's Volatility Presents High-Leverage Opportunities
• MACD: 17.60 (bullish divergence from signal line 17.77)
• RSI: 56.66 (neutral, avoiding overbought/oversold extremes)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 381.69 (above upper band 374.18, indicating overextension)
• 200D MA: 210.28 (far below current price, signaling long-term bullish trend)

AGX’s technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish momentum but caution against overextension. Key levels to watch: 384.35 (intraday high) and 342.31 (support). The stock’s 0.64 beta and 2.35% turnover rate indicate moderate volatility and liquidity. While no leveraged ETF data is available, the 75571% leverage ratio on the AGX20260717C390 call option highlights extreme sensitivity to price swings.

Top Option 1: AGX20260717C390
• Strike: $390 | Expiration: 2026-07-17 | IV Ratio: 0.46% | Leverage: 75,571% | Delta: 0.0106 | Theta: -0.0007 | Gamma: 0.0201 | Turnover: 0
• IV Ratio (low): Suggests undervalued volatility
• Leverage (extreme): Amplifies gains/losses exponentially
• Delta (low): Minimal directional sensitivity
• Gamma (high): Strong price sensitivity to movement
• Theta (negative): Time decay risk
• Turnover (zero): Illiquid, high-risk trade
Why it stands out: The AGX20260717C390 offers astronomical leverage for a 5% upside scenario (projected price: $400.77). Payoff would be $10.77 per share, but its zero turnover and low IV ratio make it a speculative bet for long-term bullish investors.

Top Option 2: AGX20260717C390 (same as above)
• Same contract due to limited options data. AGX’s options chain lacks depth, making this the only viable choice. Traders should consider this as a long-term, high-leverage play if AGX sustains its current trajectory.

Backtest Argan Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study dashboard that summarises how Argan (AGX.N) has behaved after every ≥ 14 % intraday surge since 2022. Open it to explore all underlying statistics.Key take-aways • Six qualifying events were identified between 2024-04-15 and 2025-10-14. • Average close-to-close performance: – Day +1: +1.8 % (66 % win rate). – Short-term dip: worst average at Day +6 (-5.1 %). – Recovery thereafter: by Day +30 the stock was up +23.2 %, beating the benchmark by ~15 ppts; result tagged “significantly positive”. • Signal suggests temporary pull-backs are common within the first trading week, but momentum tends to re-emerge over the following month.Parameter notes 1. Event window: 30 trading days (default when user did not specify). 2. Price series: adjusted close prices. 3. Surge rule: day’s high ≥ previous close × 1.14.Feel free to drill into the module for individual event charts, cumulative return curves and distribution stats, or let me know if you’d like to adjust the window length, add risk controls, or test a tradeable strategy based on these signals.

AGX's 13.8% Surge: A High-Volatility Play with Clear Catalysts – Act Now Before the Window Closes
Argan’s 13.8% rally is underpinned by a $1.35B Texas project, a dividend hike, and institutional buying, but insider sales and a stretched P/E ratio introduce caution. The stock’s 45.58 P/E and 0.64 beta suggest a balance between growth and stability. Watch for a breakout above $384.35 or a breakdown below $342.31. Sector leader KBR’s -1.43% move highlights engineering sector fragility, but AGX’s clean energy focus offers a unique edge. Aggressive bulls may consider the AGX20260717C390 call option for a high-leverage bet, but only if AGX sustains its current momentum. Position yourself now—this is a high-conviction trade with clear catalysts and risks.