ARES Surges 2.7% Amid Strategic Deal Announcements—What’s Next?

• Ares Management (ARES) rallies to $179.27, up 2.7% intraday, nearing its 52W high of $200.49
• Announces £1.2B debt financing for OneAdvanced, a UK SaaS leader, signaling robust deal flow
• 5-year EPS growth of 33% mirrors its 34% annualized share price rise, reflecting disciplined capital allocation

Ares Management’s sharp climb today underscores investor confidence in its alternative asset management playbook, with the OneAdvanced deal highlighting its ability to deploy capital at scale. The stock trades near resistance at its 52W high, having surged from an intraday low of $174.75 to within striking distance of record territory.

Strategic Debt Financing Sparks Momentum
The stock’s surge is directly tied to Ares’ role in a landmark £1.2 billion debt financing package for OneAdvanced, a UK-based enterprise software provider. This transaction—backed by Carlyle and Goldman Sachs—positions Ares to benefit from OneAdvanced’s growth in critical sectors like healthcare and government IT. The deal’s scale ($1.2B) and strategic alignment with Ares’ direct lending focus validate its value-add in private credit markets, driving today’s momentum. Institutional selling reported earlier this year appears outweighed by the positive catalysts from this high-impact partnership.

Investment Management Sector Mixed Amid Macro Uncertainty
While Ares surges 2.7%, sector peer BlackRock (BLK) climbs only 3.6%—a narrower gap than typical, suggesting sector leadership is fragmented. The S&P 500 Financials sector remains rangebound, with lingering macroeconomic concerns tempering enthusiasm. Ares’ outperformance highlights its alternative asset specialization, contrasting with broader asset managers contending with yield curve pressures.

Bullish Bias Meets Opportunistic Option Picks
Technical Indicators
• RSI: 57.7 (Neutral, below 60)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price ($179.27) near upper band ($182.81)
• 200-day MA: $167.44 (well above current price)

Ares faces critical resistance at $182.81 (upper Bollinger Band), with short-term bullish momentum intact. Traders should monitor $172.83 (200-day MA) as key support. The ProShares Ultra Financials (LE harnesses sector exposure but carries elevated risk. Focus instead on these top options:

1. ARES20250815C175 (Call Option)
- Strike: $175 | Expiration: Aug 15
- Implied Volatility: 28.8% | Leverage: 20.87%
- Delta: 0.64 (Moderate bullish exposure)
- Gamma: 0.025 (Enhanced price sensitivity)
- Why: Offers asymmetric risk/reward with 5% upside yielding ~15% premium gains.

2. ARES20250815P170 (Put Option)
- Strike: $170 | Expiration: Aug 15
- Implied Volatility: 40.9% | Leverage: 41.73%
- Delta: -0.30 (Defensive hedge)
- Theta: -0.075 (Decaying time value)
- Why: Captures volatility premium while protecting against corrections below $172.

Action Alert: Bulls should buy the Aug 175 call for leverage into $185 targets while bears layer in the Aug 170 put to capitalize on potential profit-taking.

Backtest Ares Management Stock Performance
The backtest of ARES's performance after a 3% intraday surge shows mixed results, with varying win rates and returns over different time frames. Here's a detailed analysis:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The 3-day win rate is 53.28%, the 10-day win rate is 52.24%, and the 30-day win rate is 51.64%. This indicates that ARES tends to experience positive returns more often than not, but the win rates are not consistently high across all time frames.2. Returns: The average 3-day return is 0.12%, the 10-day return is also 0.12%, and the 30-day return is 0.17%. The maximum return during the backtest period is 0.28%, which occurred on day 17. This suggests that while ARES can experience gains from a 3% intraday surge, the overall returns are relatively modest, and there is some volatility in the short-term performance.In conclusion, a 3% intraday surge in ARES has historically led to positive returns over various short-term periods, but the overall performance is not consistently high, and there is some variability in the results. Investors should consider these findings along with their broader investment strategy and risk tolerance when evaluating the potential impact of such events on their portfolios.

Hold Through Resistance or Prepare for Volatility—Watch BLK’s Lead
Ares Management’s ascent tests technical resistance but remains underpinned by its deal-driven growth model. Investors must weigh the OneAdvanced catalyst against broader sector dynamics—BlackRock’s 3.6% rise shows the sector isn’t uniformly firing. With RSI neutral and the upper Bollinger Band looming, traders should focus on $182.81 as the breakout threshold. Should Ares clear this hurdle, the path to $200 opens—failure could trigger profit-taking toward $175. Monitor BLK’s performance for sector sentiment while positioning for either scenario using the highlighted options. Action Insight: Fade overbought conditions if $182 fails, but stay long-term bullish on Ares’ alternative asset dominance.