Ares Management Surges 5.2% on Record Fundraising and $150B Dry Powder Catalyst – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Ares Management (ARES) rockets 5.19% to $156.435, hitting an intraday high of $159.07
• Q3 earnings reveal $471M fee earnings and 28% AUM growth, with $150B dry powder set for deployment
• Acquisition of BlueCove and $1.12/share dividend signal strategic momentum

Ares Management’s stock is surging on the back of record fundraising, a $150B dry powder catalyst, and a 28% year-over-year AUM increase. The company’s Q3 results, including $471M in fee earnings and a $1.12/share dividend, have ignited investor optimism. With a $159.07 intraday high and $151.37 low, the stock’s 5.19% rally reflects confidence in its capital deployment pipeline and strategic expansion into systematic credit markets.

Q3 Earnings and $150B Dry Powder Drive Ares’ Rally
Ares Management’s 5.19% intraday surge is directly tied to its Q3 earnings report, which highlighted a 28% year-over-year increase in assets under management (AUM) and fee-related earnings of $471.2 million. Management’s guidance to exceed its previous $93B annual fundraising record and deploy $150B in dry powder has positioned the firm as a high-growth alternative asset manager. The acquisition of BlueCove, a systematic credit firm, further underscores Ares’ strategic focus on scalable, data-driven strategies. These factors, combined with a $1.12/share dividend and improving credit quality in its private portfolios, have driven the stock’s sharp rally.

Asset Management Sector Mixed as Ares Outperforms
While Ares Management’s stock surged, the broader asset management sector showed mixed performance. BlackRock (BLK), the sector leader, fell 1.55% intraday, reflecting divergent investor sentiment. Ares’ outperformance stems from its unique catalysts—$150B in dry powder, a 28% AUM growth rate, and a strategic pivot to systematic credit—compared to peers’ reliance on traditional fee structures. The sector’s uneven recovery highlights Ares’ differentiation through alternative strategies and aggressive capital deployment.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Ares’ Momentum
• 200-day average: 167.58 (below current price) • RSI: 57.15 (neutral) • MACD: -3.83 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 141.19–154.52 (current price above upper band)

Ares Management’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias despite a bearish MACD. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $167.58 and the upper Bollinger Band at $154.52. The stock’s 5.19% rally has pushed it into overbought territory, but strong fundamentals and $150B in dry powder support further gains. For leveraged exposure, consider bold if available, though none are listed here. Instead, focus on options:

Top Option 1: ARES20251121C155
• Strike: $155 • Expiration: 2025-11-21 • IV: 47.69% • Leverage Ratio: 20.47% • Delta: 0.56 • Theta: -0.22 • Gamma: 0.023 • Turnover: 26,130
• IV (Implied Volatility): High volatility expectations • Leverage Ratio: Amplifies returns • Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price moves • Theta: Strong time decay • Gamma: High sensitivity to price acceleration • Turnover: High liquidity
• This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $164.25). Payoff: max(0, 164.25 - 155) = $9.25 per share.

Top Option 2: ARES20251121C160
• Strike: $160 • Expiration: 2025-11-21 • IV: 48.04% • Leverage Ratio: 29.01% • Delta: 0.45 • Theta: -0.22 • Gamma: 0.023 • Turnover: 5,756
• IV: High volatility expectations • Leverage Ratio: High amplification • Delta: Lower sensitivity to price moves • Theta: Strong time decay • Gamma: High sensitivity to price acceleration • Turnover: Moderate liquidity
• This option provides aggressive leverage for a 5% upside (targeting $164.25). Payoff: max(0, 164.25 - 160) = $4.25 per share. Its lower delta suits a breakout scenario.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider ARES20251121C155 into a test of $167.58 (200-day MA). If $159.07 holds, the rally could extend.

Backtest Ares Management Stock Performance
Key take-aways• Since 2022, Ares Management (ARES.N) logged 15 trading sessions where the share price surged ≥ 5 % from the previous day’s close.• After such spikes, the median path has been constructive: over the next month the stock added about 3 % (vs. ~2.9 % for the S&P 500 ETF proxy we used). • Win-rates exceeded 70 % on several horizons (days 12–17), and the 14- to 17-day window delivered the strongest and most statistically significant average excess gains (≈ +4–5 pps over the benchmark).How to read the interactive panel1. Click “View results” to open the Event Backtest dashboard. 2. The table shows event count, per-day win rate, cumulative return after each day, and significance flags. 3. Use the date-range selector or hover on the chart lines to inspect individual event paths.Below is the interactive back-test result.

Ares Management’s $150B Dry Powder and Strong Earnings Signal a High-Conviction Buy – Act Now Before the Bull Run Peaks
Ares Management’s 5.19% rally is underpinned by a $150B dry powder catalyst, 28% AUM growth, and strategic expansion into systematic credit. While the MACD remains bearish, the stock’s technicals and fundamentals align for a sustained move toward $167.58. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA and key options like ARES20251121C155 for leveraged exposure. With the sector leader BlackRock (BLK) down 1.55%, Ares’ outperformance highlights its unique growth drivers. Act now: Buy ARES at $156.435 with a target of $167.58, or use the ARES20251121C155 call for amplified gains.